Future Perfect Predictions for 2025: What They Got Right and What They Didn't.

According to Vox: It's time to take stock again.

Every year on January 1, the Future Perfect team makes predictions about events that we think will (or won't) happen over the next 365 days. And on December 31, we revisit those predictions and tally how we did.

All our predictions are made with an obligatory positivity — meaning something will happen — and accompanied by probabilities indicating our level of confidence in those predictions. For simplicity, predictions with a probability above 50% are considered correct if they turn out to be true, or incorrect if they don’t. If a prediction couldn’t be resolved (for instance, if the new U.S. government decided to delay the release of data), we marked it as uncertain.

The results are as follows: nineteen correct, four incorrect, and two uncertain calls, giving us a win percentage of 0.800, accounting for ties as half a win. (This puts us slightly above the Chicago Cubs' 1906 record, which recorded the highest winning percentage in Major League Baseball history.)

As always, the goal is not to keep score, but to improve forecasting by identifying where we succeeded and where we failed — and perhaps where we need to take more risks. Fortunately, we'll have another opportunity tomorrow when we publish our predictions for 2026.

The United States

Congress Passes Tough Tariff Bill (20 percent) — CORRECT PREDICTION

2025 did not pass without tariff news, but it largely came from the Trump administration, which utilized its powers to impose new tariffs on most countries. By the end of 2025, it was forecasted that the need for new revenue through a major Republican tax bill would lead to the inclusion of tariffs. However, this did not occur, as Trump could impose tariffs unilaterally.

As I noted in my original prediction, 'the probability of Trump imposing new tariffs using presidential powers is nearly 100 percent.' To be candid, the probability that was presented as 'almost' 100% turned out to be understated.

Trump Disbands the Department of Education (5 percent) — CORRECT PREDICTION

Let’s check the fine print: this prediction could have been fulfilled if Congress had passed a bill to abolish the Department of Education. This did not happen in 2025, so the prediction stands.

Trump issued an executive order for the Secretary of Education to 'take all necessary steps to facilitate the closure of the Department of Education.' Afterward, mass layoffs occurred that could be considered a dismantling of the agency, while lawsuits continued, leading to a Supreme Court ruling in favor of the government during the summer.

U.S. Affordable Care Act Repeal (30 percent) — CORRECT PREDICTION

This prediction also included important details. I noted that the 'repeal ACA' bill must achieve at least three of the five points listed below:

• Repeal or reduce Medicaid coverage or federal funding
• Repeal or reduce the ACA tax credit subsidies
• Repeal or limit employers' obligation to provide health insurance to employees
• Change ACA benefits rules so they can be used in health savings accounts
• Abolish medical training restrictions

The 'One Big Beautiful Bill' undoubtedly satisfied the first two of these requirements. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the bill includes $1.1 trillion in spending cuts to health programs over the decade. Most of these cuts pertain to Medicaid.

Jerome Powell No Longer Chair of the Fed (10 percent) — CORRECT PREDICTION

Trump would like to fire Jerome Powell, who was appointed Chair of the Federal Reserve back in 2017. Powell had openly expressed how Trump's tariffs, which raised prices, hindered the Fed's rate-cutting process, and the president dislikes that immensely.

Trump continuously proposed firing Powell, but ultimately doing so proved too risky.

Trump Will Have a Positive Approval Rating (25 percent) — CORRECT PREDICTION

Despite an overall decline in popularity, Trump indeed turned out to be still popular.