Russia prepares restrictions on Belarusian cement: what is the cause of the conflict.

An economic conflict may arise between Russia and Belarus over cement. Its sales on domestic and export markets have decreased significantly, and Belarusian products bear part of the responsibility for this.

Reasons for the conflict between the Russian Federation and Belarus

Information from foreign intelligence indicates that the largest cement producer in Russia is the company 'Cemros', which has 16 cement plants and over 30 quarries in 13 regions. However, due to the excess quantity of construction materials and declining sales, production is transitioning to a four-day work week starting October 1.

It is noted that in the group of companies owned by Oleg Deripaska, proposals are being made to limit cement imports and impose five-year anti-dumping duties to protect local producers.

The main 'culprit' of the market saturation is considered to be Belarusian cement, which, along with supplies from Kazakhstan, Iran, China, and Vietnam, is displacing Russian products from the domestic market. Over the past five years, imports have increased nearly threefold, while domestic consumption has only grown by 16%. This has led to foreign cement volumes already equaling the annual production of several Russian plants, forcing them to reduce output.

Foreign intelligence also adds that Russian cement producers want to fix imports at 1.5 million tons per year. This will ensure additional loading at a level of at least 2 million tons for local enterprises. Otherwise, the market may experience a decline of 10-15% by 2025 compared to 2024, when the demand was about 67 million tons.

It is worth noting that recently, foreign intelligence reported a potential crisis for Russia at the end of this year due to falling oil prices. The Russian budget may suffer serious losses. At the same time, in occupied Donetsk, prices for water are being reduced under the control of militants. Pushilin ordered sales at such low prices that some sales points have ceased operations.

The conflict between Russia and Belarus over cement production could have serious consequences for both countries. Russian producers are demanding measures to protect local production in the face of aggressive competition from foreign companies, which could lead to import restrictions and the implementation of anti-dumping measures. At the same time, this situation may affect the supply of cement in the market and pose a threat to the development of the construction sector in both countries.