Autogas in Ukraine reaches a three-year maximum: what analysts promise.

According to ТСН: The autogas market in Ukraine has experienced serious price fluctuations, reaching record levels in recent years. If at the beginning of December the price per liter was 35.05 UAH, now autogas is sold for almost 38 UAH per liter. This price was last recorded at the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia when panic and shortages led to prices exceeding 42 UAH per liter. This is currently the highest indicator in recent years.

Tax increase as a reason for rising prices

Experts agree: the main reason for the increase is the excise tax hike that came into effect on January 1. The new excise rates for different types of fuel are as follows:

• liquefied gas - 198 euros per 1000 liters instead of 173;

• gasoline - 300.8 euros (was 271.7);

• diesel - 253.8 euros compared to 215.7 euros earlier.

“For autogas, the increase is about 1.5 UAH per liter, for gasoline - almost 1.8 UAH, for diesel - over 2 UAH. But gas reacts more sharply because its margin is historically the lowest.”

These changes have led to adjustments in retail prices at gas stations.

Situation with autogas supply

Despite the price increase, there is no shortage of autogas in Ukraine. The market is operating in a normal mode, and no information about fuel shortages is coming in.

“This risk did not break the market. There was no collapse.”

Thanks to new logistics, importers can quickly adjust supply routes in case of threats, ensuring market stability.

Prices for gasoline and diesel

While prices for autogas have risen significantly, prices for gasoline and diesel remain relatively stable. For example, A-95 gasoline costs about 58 UAH per liter, while diesel has risen by less than one hryvnia to 58.3 UAH/l.

Analysts' estimates indicate that since the beginning of the year, prices for other types of fuel have varied by a few kopecks.

Features of the autogas market

The cost of autogas reacts more quickly to market changes due to its specifics: wholesale purchases occur practically without stockpiling, unlike gasoline and diesel.

“The autogas market minimally operates with warehouses. It lives ‘on wheels’, so any rise in wholesale immediately reflects on the ceiling.”

Low margins at gas stations also complicate the situation, as operators cannot maintain old prices.

The State and Regulatory Bodies

Experts note that the state practically does not control the situation in the market. The Antimonopoly Committee formally exists, but its real role is minimal.

“It seems to exist, but in fact does not work.”

Future forecasts

Prospects for price formation have different forecasts. Volodymyr Omelyaneko believes that the main price increases have already occurred:

“If the exchange rate of the hryvnia remains stable, there will be no sharp jump.”