The war in the Russian Federation will last at least until 2026: expert forecast for the coming months.

According to ТСН: The war in Ukraine continues on a full scale, despite previous forecasts for its conclusion in "2-3 weeks." In terms of duration, it has already exceeded the length of the war fought by Adolf Hitler against the USSR. On the weekend of January 11, the conflict initiated by Vladimir Putin will reach the same mark - 1418 days.

The military-political analyst from the "Information Resistance" group expressed his view on the situation, noting that either a resource deficit or, conversely, an excess of resources in Russia may become a reality this year.

"The war between Russia and Ukraine will continue," the analyst believes, considering the current military-political situation.

The researcher emphasizes that comparing these two wars is not entirely correct, as they have different scales, armies, and numerous parameters.

"But if we are to compare them, then the proportions (the number of troops) on the Russian and Ukrainian sides compared to the proportions of Germany and the USSR during the previous war, as well as the proportions of the length of the line of confrontation and losses, indicate that Russia is fighting significantly worse than the Soviet Union did at that time. Russia has proportionately higher losses than the Soviet Union. Zhukov was called the butcher marshal, but if we compare it to the losses currently endured by the Russian army, the true butchers are the former Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov. With proper proportional, not direct, accounting, the ratio is disproportionate," says Kovalenko.

Prospects for the war in 2026

In response to the question about the duration of the war, the expert answers: "If not the entire year, then most of it we will be engaged in defense. I do not rule out counteroffensive actions, but predominantly it will be defense."

Kovalenko also notes that the most dangerous situation is observed in the Zaporizhzhia region.

"There is a high risk that in the worst-case scenario, the Russians may reach Zaporizhzhia by the end of the year. This is the worst-case scenario. I hope it does not materialize, but the Zaporizhzhia direction is currently the most dangerous. There are stagnant actions in Donetsk. I do not rule out that the Russians this year, in the near future, in the first quarter, will try to completely occupy Lyman," the expert clarifies.

Missile strikes on Ukraine

"For the Russians, production of missiles and drones is stable. Currently, the enemy has difficulties with scaling the production of drones. Regarding missiles, especially ballistic ones, Russia even has the ability to increase production in 2026. Speaking about drone production, there will be no radical changes in the first quarter," notes Kovalenko.

The expert also draws attention to the problem of mobilizing human resources, which Russia is trying to tackle, highlighting a shortage of tanks, armored fighting vehicles, and artillery.

The war in Ukraine continues, exceeding the duration of the USSR's struggle against the Nazis, despite tremendous losses. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to convince the world of the inevitability of his victory, seeking opportunities for diplomatic maneuvers.