The winter we survived. We remember the worst predictions and thank the energy workers.

Ukraine was predicted to have a cold and dark winter – prolonged blackouts lasting up to 18 hours a day, the collapse of the energy system, and a shortage of heat and electricity even for critically important facilities. However, the worst scenarios never came true.On the first day of spring, 'Glavkom' recalls what network experts, and not only them, prepared Ukrainians for...

'Ukrainians will be without light for up to 18 hours a day'

The UN mission to monitor human rights compliance in Ukraine (MMPLU) predicted that in winter Ukrainians would be without light for four to 18 hours a day.

At that Time, it was claimed that according to Ukrainian energy workers, the population was facing a harsh winter with a deficit in the energy system of over 30% due to a shortage of three to six gigawatts of electricity during peak hours.

'There are good reasons to believe that numerous aspects of the military campaign regarding the damage or destruction of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine in terms of electricity and heat generation and transmission violate fundamental principles of international humanitarian law,' experts noted.

Moreover, the head of the 'Energy' program of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future, Andrian Prokip, predicted in an interview with 'Glavred' on September 25, 2024, that under conditions of severe frost, especially at temperatures below -10°C, the duration of outages could reach 10 hours a day.

Also, on September 19, 2024, an article was published on 'Ukrainian News' where the head of the Consumers' Association of Utility Services, Oleg Popenko, stated that there could be no light for up to 18 hours a day.

Interestingly, on the day the article was published, September 19, Popenko ironically commented on the issue of 18-hour power outages.

'A dark and cold winter awaits Ukraine'

During the preparation for the winter of 2024-2025, numerous warnings were issued in Ukraine about possible prolonged electricity outages and difficulties in heating due to Russian shelling of critical infrastructure. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its report in September 2024 about the threat of 'serious disruptions' in electricity supply.

'Ukraine's energy system has withstood the last two winters thanks to the resilience, courage, and ingenuity of its people, and strong solidarity from its international partners,' said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. 'But this winter will undoubtedly be the harshest test.'

Additionally, in September 2024, the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, warned of the possibility of an extremely hard winter due to potential Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.

'People will die in their homes'

Politico, citing energy experts' opinions, predicted that Ukraine could face electricity outages of up to 20 hours a day in the case of a cold winter and new massive Russian attacks on nuclear power plants.

Indeed, the head of the Center for Energy Research and adviser to the Ukrainian government on energy issues, Oleksandr Kharchenko, stated that under conditions of severe cold and new Russian strikes on the nuclear electricity supply system, Ukraine could face light outages of up to 20 hours a day.

Politico noted that this means 'a lack of heat in homes, halting critically important war factories, and as a result – Ukrainians leaving for abroad in search of shelter.'

'We expect a very harsh winter. People will die in their homes because Russia is destroying energy infrastructure,' said a high-ranking U.S. official on condition of anonymity.

'This winter will be much tougher than previous ones'

The situation was exacerbated by hostile propaganda media. They predicted that the winter of 2024-2025 would be much tougher for Ukraine than previous winters. For instance, an expert from the 'Second Ukraine' movement, created by Putin's godfather Medvedchuk, Oleksandr Dudchak, spoke about this.

Another propaganda publication sowed panic, claiming that Ukraine was in for the most difficult winter. A commentator for Pravda.ru wrote: 'Ukraine is facing an extraordinarily tough winter. Cities will turn into dark spots where living will be impossible. Against this background, everyone is robbing as if it were their last day.'

The worst winter scenario from 'Ukrenergo'

At the same time, Ukrainian energy experts were more measured in their assessments of the threats. Acting head of 'Ukrenergo' Oleksiy Brekht predicted that even under the worst-case scenario, power outages this winter would not exceed eight hours a day.

'Under this scenario, given the amount of electricity import we have today, we could have electricity capacity restrictions in critical, cold days of up to two blocks of disconnection schedules, no more than that. That is, up to eight hours,' the head of 'Ukrenergo' assured.

However, the worst predictions did not come true. Despite the challenges, Ukraine's energy system was able to withstand the winter period. Power outages did indeed occur.