Fitch Agency has changed Ukraine's GDP forecast for 2025.

The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has confirmed Ukraine's rating

Fitch Ratings has confirmed Ukraine's long-term rating on foreign currency obligations at 'Restricted Default'. The agency believes that Ukraine is still in the process of a broad debt restructuring and the rating will remain at this level until normalization of relations with the vast majority of external commercial creditors.

Regarding the current state of restructuring, 'Ukrenergo' has reached a preliminary agreement on the restructuring of its eurobonds worth $825 million, but no agreement has yet been reached on the restructuring of GDP warrants worth $2.6 billion. The external commercial loan from Cargill for $700 million also remains unsettled.

Ukraine's Economic Indicators

The fiscal deficit has narrowed to 17.2% of GDP in 2024, but is expected to rise to 19.3% of GDP in 2025 due to high defense spending. Net external financing of $55 billion is expected in 2025, which significantly exceeds the average of $25 billion per year in 2022-2024. Economic growth has slowed to 2.9% in 2024, and inflation has risen to 15.1% in April 2025, from an average of 6.5% in 2024.

According to estimates, Ukraine will need $524 billion for recovery over the next decade, which is 2.8 times the nominal GDP of Ukraine in 2024. The rating on obligations in national currency has been confirmed at 'CCC+', reflecting the continuation of debt servicing in hryvnias.

News Analysis

The news of the confirmation of Ukraine's rating indicates the continuation of the country's debt restructuring process. Information about the economic indicators of the Ukrainian economy allows us to conclude the difficulties the country will face in the near future and the necessity for large financial expenditures for recovery. It is important for the authorities to take effective measures to overcome the existing economic difficulties and restore stability.