Gasoline prices in Ukraine have fallen: experts named an unexpected reason.

Overproduction of gasoline in Europe: how it affected prices in Ukraine

Experts from the 'A-95 Consulting Group' Serhiy Kuyun and Ivan Marchenkov claim that excessive gasoline production in Europe led to a decrease in prices at Ukrainian gas stations by 3.4 hryvnias per liter compared to possible conditions. This was a result of sharp changes in the European market.

One of the key factors that influenced this was the opening of the Nigerian Dangote refinery in September 2024. It was able to essentially secure its own fuel supply, closing the largest market for European gasoline producers. As a result, even more European companies began to shut down their refining capacities.

Closure of refineries and increased competition

Shell, BP, and other European companies are forced to halt operations of their refineries due to low profitability in gasoline production. This has led to a reduction in the refining capacities of the European Union by 28 million tons per year. Despite this, Europe remains a large producer but faces an oversupply of products.

Competition for the Ukrainian market

Approximately 90% of fuel imports to Ukraine come from Romania, Lithuania, Poland, and Germany. Increasing competition encourages German and Polish companies to actively supply fuel to Ukraine, even overland, due to favorable conditions.

Positive effect for drivers

Analysts have recorded a decrease in the difference between gasoline and oil prices, leading to lower fuel prices in Ukraine. It is also worth noting that excise taxes on motor fuels are constantly increasing, limiting the decrease in fuel prices.

Prospects after the war

After the end of hostilities, Ukrainian refiners will face intensified competition from European companies. However, they will have an advantage due to large volumes of Ukrainian bioethanol - a key component of gasoline under modern conditions. According to analysts' estimates, Ukrainian drivers can expect stable fuel prices.