Why Patriot Doesn't Shoot Down Oreshnik: Explanations from Air Defense Experts.

According to ТСН: After Russia launched the medium-range ballistic missile "Oreshnik", the question about the capabilities of air and missile defense systems in Ukraine once again arose. Analysts are discussing which of the available complexes can intercept such threats and which cannot due to their technological limitations.

Discussion of Air Defense Capabilities

The launch of the "Oreshnik" missile towards Lviv, which is estimated to have no military justification, sparked new discussions regarding the capabilities of Ukrainian air defense. Experts are analyzing whether the Patriot and SAMP-T complexes can intercept medium-range ballistic missiles.

"Currently, Ukraine lacks systems capable of intercepting medium- and intercontinental-range ballistic missiles."

This topic has been raised before, but over the past year, there have been no significant changes in this area.

Limitations of Air Defense Systems

Experts emphasize that the inability of Patriot or SAMP-T to destroy "Oreshnik" class missiles does not indicate their technological obsolescence. The main reason lies in the specialization of air defense systems, which are designed to work with specific types of targets depending on their speed and trajectory.

In particular, the Patriot missile defense systems in PAC-3 configuration are designed to combat tactical ballistic missiles. However, no manufacturer has claimed that their systems can destroy medium-range ballistic missiles.

Technical Characteristics of Missiles

The "Oreshnik" ballistic missiles have a separating warhead with individual guidance blocks. This means that effective interception is only possible until the moment of separation and distribution along different trajectories.

After separation, the missile forms several targets, including decoys, complicating their interception in the atmosphere. The separation of warheads occurs at altitudes above 100 km, effectively outside the atmosphere.

Limited Interception Capability

Currently, only a limited number of systems are capable of exo-atmospheric interception. These include the American SM-3 missile as part of the Aegis system, Ground-Based Interceptor, the Israeli Arrow-3 system, and the American THAAD, though with serious limitations.

For example, Arrow-3 has successfully intercepted missiles launched by Iran at ranges exceeding 2000 km. Although THAAD claims the ability to intercept medium-range missiles, it has only confirmed the downing of single-block missiles without separating warheads.

Regarding THAAD, the ability to intercept missiles with separating warheads remains a subject of debate, as it depends on many factors, including trajectories, speed, and reaction time.

Technical Aspect of the Problem

Experts note that the issue of intercepting "Oreshnik" type missiles is purely technical and determined by the characteristics of air defense systems, rather than their modernity or obsolescence.

It's worth remembering that on January 9, around midnight, Russia struck Lviv for the first time in the war with an "Oreshnik", which was moving along a ballistic trajectory at a speed of about 13 thousand km/h.

The situation concerning the capabilities of Ukrainian air defense requires further discussion and may become a key topic for strategic changes in the country's armed forces. Reviewing and improving air defense systems may become necessary steps to enhance national security, as the threat of new attacks remains relevant.