Four Uncomfortable Questions Related to the Raid in the Kursk Region.

The raid actions of the AFU are ongoing in the Kursk region. At the moment, despite the assurances of the RF General Staff, the zone of control of the AFU is expanding. The leadership of Ukraine does not speak about the goals of the offensive in the Russian border area. The president's words "about transferring the war to the aggressor's territory" only characterize the current situation. Nevertheless, there are several scenarios for the development of events, at least two of which envisage long-term control over the occupied territories. And, as a consequence, create new challenges. I propose to think about this.

In the Kursk region, AFU raid actions are taking place, forcing the Russian Federation to expand the control zone. At the moment, it is not known what Ukraine's goals are in this military offensive. The president spoke about transferring the war to the aggressor's territory, but this is only a description of the situation. There are several scenarios for the development of events, in which long-term control over the occupied territories is envisaged. This creates new challenges, which are appropriate to think about.

Several Scenarios for the Development of Events in the Kursk Region.

At the moment, the AFU has achieved several political goals with its raid. Firstly, they blocked negative information regarding the occupation of the Donetsk region by the RF. On the other hand, this caused protests from the military and volunteers, as Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar have disappeared from the information agenda.

Moreover, this created problems for the internal Russian agenda. For the first Time since 1944, another country is entering part of Russian territory, namely Ukraine, which is "artificial" for the RF. This creates a political challenge for Putin, as it is impossible to reclaim these territories.

In addition, it destroys the myth of the CSTO and Russia's allies. Putin is afraid to call it "aggression" or "war" because this requires a response from CSTO allies. But the likelihood that they will help Russia is low. But there is a high probability that they will do nothing. This demonstrates the insignificance of the CSTO and Russia's policy of forming military-political blocs.

This conflict also arouses the interest of states that have territorial claims against Russia. It disrupts the geopolitical agenda, as until now Russia has tried to occupy other territories, but now it has become a victim of occupation.

The Kremlin is trying to regain control over the occupied territories by transferring troops from other fronts and involving conscript soldiers. There are several scenarios for the development of events from the Ukrainian perspective:

1. The raid operation remains a raid, but the AFU carries out an operation to liberate previously occupied Ukrainian territory by the RF.
2. Expansion of control zones and the transfer of the war to other regions of the RF, including the capture of territories in other regions.
3. Negotiation option, where the presence of a control zone on the territory of the RF guarantees that the Kremlin will not claim the occupied Ukrainian territories.
4. Creation of the "Kursk People's Republic," an unrecognized Russian state with opposition politicians to Putin.

Every day, the control over the occupied territories increases, and the task of ensuring the peaceful life of residents becomes more relevant. Questions arise regarding the organization of the transportation of civilians, the operation of infrastructure, and the delivery of humanitarian supplies. In the event of a prolonged retention of control over the territories, the creation of local authorities becomes necessary, which will deal with the problems of residents and the economy. This can be accomplished through a military administration, a local-military administration, or political power.

It is important to plan and solve tasks that are not directly related to the war but affect the peaceful life of residents. The success of the operation in the Kursk region depends on solving these tasks.