Nearly 1% of U.S. Economic Growth Wiped Out by Tariffs Under Trump’s Second Term.

How Donald Trump’s Policies Shaped the U.S. Economy

According to Vox - Загальний: Donald Trump’s return to the presidency brought significant economic shifts through tariffs, immigration restrictions, and tensions with Iran. An examination of key indicators shows these moves had clear effects on GDP, unemployment, and inflation.

In the first quarter of 2026, U.S. GDP grew by 2%, compared to 2.1% in 2025. Yet the unemployment rate stood at 4.3%. Meanwhile, real wages fell for the first time since 2023, driven by inflation hitting 3.8%. This suggests that despite GDP growth, the average American did not see improved economic conditions.

Economic Fallout from Trump’s Agenda

The consequences of Trump’s policies were tangible. Tariffs lowered U.S. economic growth by 0.23 percentage points in 2025, while immigration policy cut GDP by 0.26 percentage points. Combined, these measures reduced overall growth by roughly 0.9 percentage points. So even as GDP rose, Trump’s actions slowed the economy’s momentum.

Tariffs also pushed up prices. Without them, U.S. inflation would have been 2.3% instead of 3.2%. Additionally, a three-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have added 0.35 percentage points to inflation—highlighting how external factors amplified domestic policy impacts.

In short, Trump’s policies had a mixed effect: GDP grew, but unemployment rose, real wages declined, and inflation climbed. These outcomes demand careful scrutiny to understand the long-term legacy of his administration.

An analysis of the economic effects of Donald Trump’s policies reveals that despite positive GDP figures, social and economic metrics like unemployment and real wages point to a tough situation for households. High inflation and tariff hikes underscore how policy decisions can have lasting consequences for public welfare. This raises questions about the effectiveness of such approaches for the country’s overall development.