Putin will not be able to dictate the terms of peace: expert names the only realistic scenario.

According to ТСН: A real peace process is only possible on the condition of improving Ukraine's defense capabilities and weakening the Russian regime.

This opinion was expressed by Ukrainian publicist and journalist Vitaliy Portnikov.

He noted that in recent weeks, the main political topic in Ukraine and beyond remains the peace plan proposed by Donald Trump.

Differences in the positions of Kyiv, Washington, and Moscow

According to the journalist, the key difference in the Ukrainian approach is the desire to retain control over all territories currently under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This particularly concerns part of the Donetsk region, which Vladimir Putin is trying to completely seize.

Kyiv also insists on its right to join NATO. Ukraine needs security guarantees that will provide not just symbolic support, but real participation of allies in case of renewed aggression from Russia.

“The question is not so much why Americans might support the Ukrainian vision, but why Russians would agree to any of the proposed plans at all. After all, the Kremlin has already stated that many points of even Trump's plan are unacceptable to them,” Portnikov reflects.

What is Putin's goal in negotiations

According to the expert, Putin's goal is to buy time while continuing the war and avoiding serious pressure from the West.

Portnikov believes that such a dragging out does not fully succeed for Putin. Despite the peaceful rhetoric, Donald Trump has imposed new sanctions against Russian oil companies. Moreover, there have been signals regarding U.S. support for Ukrainian strikes on the so-called 'shadow fleet' tankers.

“Recently, Europeans agreed to an indefinite blocking of Russian assets, which opens the way for reparations loans for Ukraine. Now, unanimous voting, which Hungary could previously block, is not required,” he explains.

What will happen if Ukraine is forced to cede part of its territories

Portnikov emphasized that the Constitution of Ukraine does not allow changes to the territorial structure.

“Even holding a referendum does not guarantee support for such decisions by the majority of citizens. Moreover, international law does not recognize changes in borders due to aggression or annexation — precisely what Ukraine has been experiencing over the past years,” he noted.

Regarding security guarantees, the journalist is convinced that the U.S. will not enter into conflict with Russia in the event of renewed aggression against Ukraine. Moreover, there is currently no confidence in NATO's willingness to act according to Article 5 in case of an attack on a European country.

What is the only security guarantee for Ukraine

Portnikov believes that the only reliable guarantee is Ukraine itself, which must become a well-armed state with a developed military-industrial complex and its own missiles.

“A Ukraine, which would inflict such painful losses on Russia in the event of an attack that it would deter future aggression. But such a state can only emerge with the support of allies and only when it is not forced to disarm, as those in Moscow wish,” he explains.

In turn, Putin does not renounce the idea of 'demilitarizing' Ukraine.

The only realistic scenario

Portnikov believes that the only realistic scenario is the exhaustion of the Russian state so that Putin's regime can no longer issue ultimatums to Ukraine or the West.

“Only then will there be an opportunity for genuine negotiations. Until then, the peace process remains a peculiar top spinning but not moving forward,” the journalist concluded.

Earlier, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced what will happen if Putin does not want peace.

In the current complex geopolitical situation, it is important to continue discussions on ways to peace and securing Ukraine's safety. The positions taken by the main players on the international stage will determine not only the future of our country but also the stability of the entire European region.