The era of cheap energy for Ukraine has ended: gas prices may rise to record levels.

Ukraine is facing a crisis situation in the gas market, as the gas storage facilities are filled to a historic minimum of 8.9%. Experts and business representatives are concerned.

This situation is extremely serious, as there has never been such a low level of reserves before, reports GMK Center.

Despite gas production increasing to 19.1 billion cubic meters in 2024 (2.3% more than in 2023), the country has a significant deficit. Naftogaz, Ukrgazvydobuvannya, and Ukrnafta together produce 82% of gas, while private companies produce 3.4 billion cubic meters.

The Minister of Energy, German Galushchenko, stated that at least 1 billion cubic meters of gas need to be imported by the end of 2025. At the beginning of February, Naftogaz started urgent orders for 100 million cubic meters of gas, and Ukrtransgaz plans to purchase another 100 million cubic meters in February-March.

Experts highlight several reasons for the crisis situation:

- deficiencies in Naftogaz's market strategy, as it tried to expand its client base by selling gas at undervalued prices;

- a rapid rise in gas prices in Europe, to $600-650 per thousand cubic meters;

- unpreparedness for the consequences of Russian missile attacks on gas infrastructure;

- lack of timely gas purchases in the summer of 2024, when prices were lower.

Denis Sakva, a senior analyst at Dragon Capital, warns of domestic gas prices rising to import levels, which would have serious consequences for the industry, especially for the metallurgy sector.

According to expert estimates, to ensure the country's energy security, a minimum gas reserve of 14 billion cubic meters needs to be maintained by November. This would mean importing 2-3 billion cubic meters of gas at current prices and significant costs.

Alexander Kalenkov, president of the Ukrmetalurhprom Association, notes that any increase in the cost of steel production will negatively impact metallurgical enterprises, especially Zaporizhstal, where gas consumption is higher than at other enterprises.

The situation is complicated by the fact that all European countries are also accumulating gas reserves for the heating season, which will support high prices in the market. Experts warn that the era of cheap energy for Ukraine has ended, and this will affect both the industry and the population.