Bread Prices in Ukraine Could Jump Over 25% in a Year—Plus Meat and Dairy Outlook.

Food Price Forecast: What’s Coming Next

According to Espreso.tv: According to analyst Denys Marchuk, the cost of bread, meat, and dairy products is set to rise, while vegetable prices may temporarily drop during summer before climbing again in the fall. He projects that bread alone could increase by another 12–15% by the end of the year, pushing the total annual rise past the 25% mark.

Several major forces are shaping food pricing:

• labor costs;
• the hryvnia-to-foreign-currency exchange rate;
• inflation.

Marchuk describes these as 'key factors that determine the final price tag for products.' He also notes that from July through September, vegetable prices might see a partial decline. However, due to storage expenses and other cost components, the vegetable category could jump by 8–15% in the autumn.

How Government Commitments Play a Role

In addition, the government pledged in November 2024 to draft a bill introducing a reduced excise tax rate on fuel for agricultural producers—a move that could also influence pricing. The food market remains under pressure, and experts continue to monitor developments closely.

Rising costs for staples like bread, meat, and dairy are likely to squeeze household budgets, especially amid ongoing inflation. While a summer dip in vegetable prices may offer brief relief, a sharp rebound is expected in the fall. The government’s planned excise tax adjustment for farmers could become a pivotal factor in determining food prices in the near future.