Kerch Ferry’s Capacity Collapses by Up to 75%: What’s Left of Russia’s Fleet.

Current State of the Kerch Ferry Crossing

According to UATV: The Kerch ferry crossing has suffered a dramatic decline in throughput, losing as much as 75% of its capacity over a two-week period in July. This drop stems from damage to the ferries that shuttle cargo between the ports of Kavkaz and Crimea. As of July 19, 2023, only four vessels were still operating on the route: 'Lavrentiy,' 'Panagia,' 'Yeysk,' and 'Maria.'

The ferry 'Yeysk' was towed to the port of Kerch after being struck on July 12–13. Meanwhile, the reserve vessel SKS One, stationed in Kerch harbor, was hit on July 7, 12, and 13, and is now beyond repair. The ferry 'Maria' also sustained severe damage and will not return to service. Both 'Lavrentiy' and 'Panagia' have lost the ability to move under their own power.

Impact on Logistics and Supply Chains

The combined daily capacity of these four ferries was roughly 180 to 250 vehicles, with about 80% of that traffic dedicated to supporting the Russian military. As analyst Robert 'Madyar' Brovdy noted:

“Each ferry could carry between 8 and 15 pieces of equipment, depending on weight and size.” — Robert 'Madyar' Brovdy

The current condition of the ferry fleet now severely limits Russia’s logistics capabilities along this critical corridor.

This sharp reduction in the Kerch crossing’s capacity significantly disrupts regional logistics and supply lines, especially given the growing military demands. The damage to the ferries, combined with already constrained transport options, is likely to delay deliveries of equipment and cargo, affecting the operational readiness of Russian forces. In a conflict setting, such losses could have strategic consequences for military operations in the area.