Russia Yet to Confirm Attendance for February Peace Talks as Casualty Figures Mount.

Ukraine-Russia Negotiations

According to UATV: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed that peace talks with Russia are scheduled for February 17th or 18th in the United States, though Moscow has not yet confirmed its participation. Zelenskyy expressed skepticism about a swift end to the war, stating,

"I do not believe it will stop the war in the near future."

Casualty Rates and Mobilization Prospects

While Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated a readiness for compromises, he emphasized this would not involve altering Russia's key principles. Meanwhile, Ukrainian intelligence estimates that Russian army casualties now range from 30,000 to 35,000 killed and seriously wounded per month. The casualty situation for Russian servicemen deteriorated significantly in 2023, with the number of dead or missing in action rising sharply; Russia had officially recorded 6,000 military deaths as of September 2022. Experts forecast that by summer 2023, Russia could lose an additional 100,000 to 120,000 troops, a scale of losses that may force the country to announce a new wave of mobilization.

Analysts suggest Russia is also attempting to use the negotiation process to rebuild relations with the United States. However, prior assessments indicate Moscow has no intention of ending the war until its objectives are met or favorable conditions emerge, a view supported by Estonian foreign intelligence. Analyzing the Russian strategy, analyst Michael Kofman notes,

"Putin's bet was that sustained pressure along a broad front would ultimately lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian side."

Consequently, the talks planned for February are set against a backdrop of severe Russian military losses and a complex mobilization outlook, factors likely to significantly influence the negotiating positions of both sides. The planned discussions reflect the difficult situation on the front lines, where Russian casualties have increased substantially. This context may prompt strategic shifts for both nations as each side seeks to secure maximum advantage during negotiations. Despite Russia's stated willingness to compromise, it remains unclear whether these talks can lead to tangible progress in resolving the conflict.