New Security Guarantees for Ukraine: What the US Offers and Whether It Will Work.

According to ТСН: As a result of recent events, three people have died, including a child born in 2021. The situation is difficult in the Rivne, Ternopil, and Khmelnytskyi regions, where electricity supply has been almost completely disconnected. Two nuclear power plants have reduced electricity production. In many other regions of Ukraine, emergency electricity supply schedules have been implemented. According to the DeepState project, hostile forces have advanced into the Sumy and Donetsk regions. Meanwhile, American representatives acting as mediators are negotiating with Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Miami, without insisting on the 'energy' ceasefire proposed by Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Negotiations and Expectations

The President of Ukraine hopes to receive information from US representatives about the progress of their negotiations with the Russian side. Previously, the Americans had already discussed similar issues with the Ukrainian delegation, which returned to Kyiv. According to Zelenskyy, there are 20 points of a plan developed jointly with European partners. Although not everything in this plan is perfect, it exists nonetheless. Finnish President Alexander Stubb believes that only 5% of the most difficult issues remain to be resolved before a peace agreement can be reached. German Foreign Minister Joachim Wadephul emphasized the possibility of territorial concessions from Ukraine within the peace agreement if accompanied by reliable security guarantees, although President Zelenskyy has repeatedly denied this.

Security Guarantees refer to what the US and Europe are willing to provide to prevent further advances by Russia and missile-drone strikes, as well as to protect Ukraine from a new full-scale invasion. TSN.ua has gathered information on what is being discussed in the context of negotiations regarding the 'peace' plan proposed by Trump and Putin.

Budapest Memorandum

It is known that in 1994, Ukraine renounced significant nuclear arsenals under the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for security guarantees from the US, the UK, and Russia. Over time, France and China joined the signatories. Despite numerous arguments about why the memorandum lacks legal force, the fact remains: the guarantor countries have not fulfilled their obligations. During hearings in the Senate in 2014, Marco Rubio, then a senator, reminded his colleagues how Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees, which it never received.

“What lesson, in your opinion, does this case teach? I think the message for many nations in the world is that we may no longer be able to rely on security promises made by the free world. Perhaps we need to start taking care of ourselves,” Rubio stated in 2014.

After 11 years as Secretary of State, Rubio no longer mentions US guarantees to Ukraine. Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged in his memoirs the inadequate support for Ukraine from allies since 2014 due to fears of provoking Russia.

Current Discussions

Following the report by National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov and Chief of General Staff Andrii Hnatov, who returned from Miami, Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the preparation of several documents, including those regarding security guarantees for Ukraine. It is also known that Washington has handed over a draft agreement on security guarantees to Kyiv, similar to NATO's Article 5, which states that 'an attack on one is an attack on all'. This issue is actively discussed, but the emphasis is on possible territorial concessions from Ukraine.

NATO Troops in Ukraine

If the US is indeed willing to provide Ukraine with security guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5, this could mean sending American troops to Ukraine in case of Russian aggression. However, signals from Washington indicate that American soldiers will not be on Ukrainian territory.

European countries like France, the UK, and Germany may provide their troops, but this will only be possible after a ceasefire is established.

Constructive Ideas

Expert M. Kančian notes that the lack of a clear decision on security guarantees complicates the situation. According to experts, security guarantees that could be universal are very complex issues, especially regarding Russia's attitude toward Western troops in Ukraine.

“Therefore, the most constructive idea right now is the 'sky shield' or integrated air defense zone,” Andreas Umland believes.

Thus, the issue of reliable security guarantees for Ukraine remains open and requires careful, constructive approaches from the international community. It is important for Ukraine to receive support and protection of its interests at the international level, as the threat from the aggressor remains serious and relevant.