A solar flare could destroy Starlink satellites: CRASH Clock shows 2.8 days until catastrophe.

According to Korrespondent.net: The rapid increase in the number of satellites in low Earth orbit poses serious threats to space infrastructure. Scientists conducting a new study note that a single powerful solar flare could trigger a chain of events that would render the orbit unusable for decades.

Key risks for satellites

The main risk factor is the high density of satellites, many of which belong to SpaceX's Starlink network. During heightened solar activity in 2024, the system already lost control of some satellites twice. According to researchers, the daily probability of a catastrophic collision when losing control is about 30%.

The authors compare modern orbital infrastructure to a 'house of cards'.

In June 2025, dangerous approaches between satellites are recorded on average every 22 seconds. When considering only Starlink satellites, they come within less than a kilometer of each other every 11 minutes. To avoid collisions, each Starlink satellite performs an average of 41 evasion maneuvers per year, making the system critically dependent on stable communication, navigation, and control.

Impact of solar flares

Solar flares affect satellites in two significant ways. First, they heat the upper layers of the Earth's atmosphere, leading to increased aerodynamic drag and chaotic orbital changes. This forces the devices to maneuver more frequently and exhaust fuel faster. In May 2024, more than half of the satellites in low orbit performed such maneuvers. Secondly, strong geomagnetic storms can threaten communication and navigation systems, complicating management maneuvers.

Within the study, scientists introduced a new risk metric - CRASH Clock (Collision and Significant Harm Realization Clock).

In 2018, this indicator was 121 days, and by June 2025, it had reduced to 2.8 days. This is the time within which a catastrophic collision can occur after a complete loss of maneuverability. Losing control for 24 hours already gives approximately a 30% probability of the Kessler syndrome — a cascade reaction where debris from one collision leads to new ones, filling the orbit with dangerous debris.

Complete orbital debris pollution can last for years, but only one extreme solar event is needed to initiate this destructive process. A similar situation has occurred in history — the famous Carrington storm of 1859, which was the most powerful known.

NASA showed what one of the most powerful solar storms in history looked like

The study of these risks has become extremely relevant, as the rapid development of technology and the increase in the number of satellites seriously complicate the situation in orbit. Scientists are calling for active measures to monitor and manage orbital space to avoid potentially catastrophic consequences for space infrastructure and living conditions on Earth.