Last Attempt: WP on the Goals of Russia's Summer Offensive in Ukraine.

Russian Plans for a Major Summer Offensive

Ukrainian military analysts and intelligence have uncovered possible plans from the Russian command regarding a major summer offensive in the Donetsk region. According to the Washington Post, Russia plans to concentrate its main efforts on capturing Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, which have been targets of the Kremlin's ambitions for a year. Initially, distracting operations are also anticipated on the borders of Sumy and Kharkiv regions.

'Russia will try to pin down Ukrainian forces along the entire front line, including the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, but will prioritize Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka,' explains Mykola Beleskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine.

According to intelligence, there are 125,000 Russian soldiers positioned on the borders of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. However, from the perspective of Ukrainian analysts, these forces will not be sufficient to capture regional centers. In comparison, Russian troops needed 80,000 fighters to capture Avdiivka after a prolonged siege in February 2024.

Preparation for Defense

Ukraine finds it difficult to defend itself due to mobilization issues and a lack of firepower, while Russian forces are intensifying their military permits. The only key driving force for Ukraine's defensive strategy remains the supply of Western weapons provided without restrictions by the German Chancellor.