650 thousand Ukrainians will not stay in Poland: study reveals the reasons.

According to ТСН: More than half a million able-bodied Ukrainians are likely to not stay in Poland for long, even if they already have a job. Economic integration has not led to a deeper social connection.

This information is contained in a study by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), the results of which were published in the Rzeczpospolita journal.

Scale and threats

Today, over 1.5 million Ukrainians are legally residing in Poland, a significant portion of whom (75–85%) are working. However, according to the institute’s estimates, about 650,000 working Ukrainians do not plan to stay in the Polish labor market.

This debunks the stereotype that having a job automatically means settling in the country.

“Even immigrants with a high level of integration may decide to leave, while those with weak integration may stay due to a lack of alternatives,” the report states.

Four types of Ukrainian migrants

Researchers identified four groups of Ukrainians, each having different plans for the future:

1. “Guests” (39%): the largest group. These are mostly men engaged in simple jobs who arrived after 2022. They work but are weakly culturally integrated and are likely to return home.

2. “Travelers” (30%): young women who came after the war began. They work in the service and education sectors. Open to new experiences, but plan to return to Ukraine.

3. “Arrivals” (16%): mainly women who are not working and have been in Poland for less than 4 years. They seek safety but feel instability.

4. “Settlers” (15%): the smallest but most stable group. These are people (most often highly qualified men) who have lived in Poland for over 4 years. They have Polish friends and are most likely to stay forever.

What keeps people

The study dispels the myth of “hunting for benefits.” The most important factors for Ukrainians when choosing a country are:

• Stability of the right to reside.

• Living conditions and salary.

• Least important turned out to be the availability of social benefits.

Experts note that psychology plays an important role: those who feel an emotional connection to Poland or have a Polish partner stay more often than those driven solely by economic considerations.

There is also a group of highly qualified specialists (doctors, engineers) who are well integrated but may move further West in search of better conditions or return home when the situation in Ukraine improves.

It is estimated that after the war ends, only a third of citizens will return to Ukraine. Security factors, availability of housing, jobs, and prospects for children play a significant role in this. Those Ukrainians who left abroad as a whole family have significantly lower chances of returning.