The process of impoverishment of Russians is unavoidable - economist.
The impoverishment of Russians is a consequence of military economy, a decline in citizens' incomes, the devaluation of the ruble, and rising prices for goods. This was stated by economist Oleksandr Savchenko. According to him, the living standards of the average Russian have decreased by 9-10% since the beginning of the war. He also noted that the problems of the Russian economy arose before the war began because relatively high oil prices made the country quite wealthy. However, now, due to the depletion of oil reserves, Russia will be forced to buy oil from Ukraine with a markup of 20%, which leads to rising prices for Russians.
In turn, the Central Bank of Russia will not be able to stop inflation. According to Savchenko, the actual inflation rate is about 20%, even with the promises of the head of the bank Elvira Nabiullina to lower the key rate by 2025. He notes that the central bank has only one tool for influencing inflation - the rate. If the rate is higher than the level of inflation, it works, but in this case, it is ineffective.
The economist also claims that the Russian economy in wartime cannot successfully fight inflation due to significant expenses on the military campaign. In particular, Putin plans to increase spending on the war by 22% next year, but there is no funding for it. The last option is printing money, but this leads to an acceleration of inflation.
The expert also notes that the devaluation of the ruble leads to an increase in prices for foreign goods and accelerates inflation. He predicts that the ruble exchange rate will fall by 15% next year.
Furthermore, raising the key interest rate will have negative consequences for the real sector of the economy, Savchenko said.
Read also
- Russia will never see the frozen 300 billion dollars again — economist
- Russia conceals the real situation in the economy - expert