Military Analysis: Russia Lacks Strength for Zaporizhzhia Offensive, May Target Orikhiv Instead.

Frontline Situation in the Zaporizhzhia Region

According to TSN.ua: Military experts assess that Russian occupying forces lack the necessary resources for a large-scale offensive on the city of Zaporizhzhia. However, they may attempt to seize the town of Orikhiv, located 65 km from the regional capital. The situation is complicated by geographical factors, particularly the Kakhovka Reservoir, which hinders the advance of Russian troops.

Occupying groups have been observed south of Prymorske. According to a deputy battalion commander with the call sign 'Hans,' the enemy lacks the resources for a major assault supported by all available means, including armored vehicles and tank groups on a single axis. Commander 'Perun' also noted that the terrain lacks sufficient ground cover for a rapid advance, further complicating Russian military capabilities. The Zaporizhzhia front has been a focal point since Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive, with both sides heavily entrenched.

Potential Directions for Attack

Military analysts believe Russian troops may attempt to advance toward Komyshuvakha, situated between Zaporizhzhia and Orikhiv. The 30 km distance from Huliaipole to Orikhiv could be a chosen objective for attacks. A Ukrainian officer expressed the view that Russians will advance slowly toward Zaporizhzhia but will first concentrate on Orikhiv.

On the night of January 27-28, at least 12 homes were damaged in Zaporizhzhia, indicating continued combat activity in the region. Given the absence of resources for a large-scale offensive on Zaporizhzhia, military experts believe attempts to attack Orikhiv should be expected in the near term. The frontline situation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains tense due to constant attempts by Russian forces to intensify their actions.

The strategic importance of Orikhiv as a potential target underscores the occupiers' intent to consolidate their position despite existing difficulties. Further combat operations could lead to new destruction and heightened tension in the region, requiring close attention from Ukrainian military and civilian services.