2026 will be a decisive year for the war: peace agreement or new campaign.

According to ТСН: 2026 may become a decisive year regarding the end of active hostilities or the transition of the conflict into a new, prolonged stage. Key global players, including the USA, EU, and even Russia, have concluded that prolonging the negotiation process will only worsen the situation for Ukraine.

This opinion was expressed by political expert Vadim Denisenko while commenting on the possibilities of a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

What Putin Demands

According to the expert, the Kremlin has a clear list of demands. Vladimir Putin believes that for real negotiations, full control over the Donbas region must be established.

In addition to territorial claims, the Russian leader aims to achieve three more strategic goals:

• Lifting sanctions.

• Returning to geopolitics.

• Control over the Ukrainian government.

"The first two points seem to be ones that the USA will be ready to support. However, Putin has a significant leeway to continue the war, as he can always talk about lifting European sanctions," Denisenko notes.

The Threat of a Split in the EU

The expert predicts that in 2026, the unity of the European Union may be under threat. If the USA eases pressure on Moscow, business circles in countries like France and Italy may begin to lobby for the restoration of trade with Russia. This could lead to the partial lifting of European sanctions.

Denisenko questions the reliability of Article 5 of NATO as a safeguard against new attacks. In his view, real security guarantees for Ukraine can only be achieved through clearly articulated agreements with specific terms and figures:

1. Accession to the European Union.

2. Guaranteed funding for Ukraine.

If these points remain declarative, any new agreement risks repeating the fate of the Budapest Memorandum. Europe is interested in maintaining a strong and functioning Ukrainian army, viewing it as a protection for its own security.

Two Scenarios for 2026

The political scientist outlined the timeframes that could be decisive for the fate of the country.

Scenario 1: Peace Agreement (January–April). If negotiations prove successful in the first half of the year, Ukraine may conclude a peace agreement. Based on current trends, it is likely to involve Ukraine's withdrawal from the Donbas and receiving "relatively declarative" security guarantees.

Scenario 2: Summer Campaign. If by April diplomatic efforts reach a deadlock, Ukraine will have to launch a large-scale summer-autumn military campaign with all the associated risks and consequences.

The negotiation process regarding the end of the war in Ukraine is approaching a decisive stage. An important meeting between the presidents of Ukraine and the USA is set to take place soon, during which the final version of the peace plan is expected to be discussed.

This meeting indicates significant progress, as earlier Trump only agreed to personal negotiations in the presence of a real agreement.

Thus, 2026 will be a critical moment for Ukraine when the global community must determine the next steps in resolving the conflict. The outcomes of negotiations and foreign policy will determine not only Ukraine's future but also the stability of the entire region.