The boom of war is over: a German expert revealed what to expect from the Russian economy in 2025..

The Russian economy may face problems by 2025 due to the end of growth in the military-industrial sector. This conclusion was made by expert Janis Kluge, deputy head of the Eastern Europe and Eurasia department of the Berlin-based Science and Politics Foundation.

Kluge analyzed official Russian statistics and concluded that the current model of economic growth in Russia has exhausted itself, despite planned increases in military spending. The projected GDP growth of 3.5-4% for 2024 is in many cases explained by statistical effects. In reality, the Russian economy has practically not grown since the beginning of the year, and industrial production has begun to decline.

The main reasons for this situation are the acute shortage of qualified personnel, import problems with specialized equipment due to sanctions, and a demographic crisis, including a decrease in the working-age population and a decline in the influx of labor migrants.

Janis Kluge paid special attention to Russia's military-industrial complex. He believes that expanding production is unlikely due to a lack of personnel and equipment, which may affect the production of certain types of weapons.

Additional risks for the Russian economy in 2025 include a potential drop in oil prices, new international sanctions, particularly on the export of oil, gas, and fertilizers. Furthermore, Russia still receives significant volumes of Western components for weapon production through third countries, primarily China.