Politico analyzed the world in 2026: what scenarios are the most likely.

According to ТСН: The American publication Politico analyzed key global scenarios for the year 2026, offering original "bets" on their development.

Forecasts for Ukraine

According to the analytical material, the forecast for Ukraine is cautious: the chances that US President Donald Trump's efforts will lead to peace are rated at 4 to 1. Despite economic pressure, the Kremlin continues to hold a tough position. The US President is increasingly irritated by the protracted negotiations from Moscow. A long war is advantageous for Putin, but this status remains vulnerable due to internal problems in Russia and the limited resources of Ukraine.

Global financial shocks

Besides the situation in Ukraine, analysts predict severe shocks in global finances. A major crisis in the bond market has the highest likelihood — 5 to 1. There is also a threat to the "shadow banking" sector (investment funds and private creditors), where the risk of a massive breakdown is rated at 3 to 1. This could become a real test for the global economy, which is already feeling the pressure of geopolitical instability.

The political arena situation

Politico also expects the status quo to remain in complex regions. Benjamin Netanyahu has a high chance of remaining in power in Israel. And Viktor Orban, despite opposition resistance and economic problems, is likely to win elections in Hungary again. In the US, “divided” power is predicted: the Democrats may reclaim the House of Representatives, while the Senate will likely remain under Republican control.

Let us remind you that earlier we wrote that despite the huge losses of the Russian army with modest advances on the front, the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin will not abandon his ultimate goal — to bring Ukraine back into the orbit of Moscow’s influence.

Ukrainian and American historian Serhiy Plokhii also believes that the master of the Kremlin will not abandon the continuation of the war, and the crisis situation in the Russian economy might further strengthen his desire to fight.

These forecasts from Politico indicate various challenges that the world may face in the coming years. The situation in Ukraine remains tense, while global financial shocks may affect many countries. The political arena is also undergoing changes that could significantly impact international relations. This creates a context for further analysis and understanding of how these events might interdependently influence each other.