Why Russia is withdrawing its ships from the naval base in Tartus, Syria: analysis of ISW.

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report that Russia is withdrawing its ships from the naval base in Tartus, Syria. This indicates that Moscow will not be providing significant reinforcements to Bashar al-Assad in the near future.

However, there have been new reports about the possible deployment of mercenaries from the Russian 'African Corps' to Syria, replacing the private military company 'Wagner'.

ISW cannot independently confirm reports of the deployment of African Corps units in Syria, but if these reports are true, it would mean that the Russian military command is avoiding the relocation of regular Russian military forces from its priority theater in Ukraine to Syria, ISW noted.

Photographs that finally confirmed this information indicate that all Russian ships that were in Tartus have been withdrawn from the base.

However, Russia cannot transfer these ships to the Black Sea through the Turkish straits due to the Montreux Convention. Instead, these ships are likely to be temporarily based at Russian naval bases in the northwest of Russia and in the Kaliningrad region.

Analysts believe this may be related to the threat posed by the Syrian opposition. But for now, Russia will likely have to rely on mercenaries from the 'African Corps'.

It is worth noting that the situation in northern Syria escalated in late November when Syrian rebels seized the city of Aleppo and continue their assault on the city of Hama. According to intelligence, Russia changed its military commander in Syria due to significant losses.

Thus, it can be concluded that Russia is withdrawing its ships from Tartus and intends to rely on mercenaries from the 'African Corps', as the Syrian opposition continues to achieve victories.