Trump's economic policy could completely change the situation on the world oil market - expert.

The forecasts for an increase in Russian oil exports may not come true due to Trump's economic policy

The National Association of Oil and Gas Service of Russia predicts that oil exports from the country will increase by 0.7% in 2024, 2025, and 2026. However, the economic policy of American President Donald Trump may cause changes in the global oil market and cancel these forecasts.

According to Oleg Pendzin, Executive Director of the Economic Discussion Club, there are many factors that can affect the global economy, oil prices, and demand. Currently, China and India are the largest buyers of Russian oil. However, if trade wars between the USA and China lead to a decrease in production in China, this will lead to a decrease in demand for oil and affect the supply of Russian oil.

Another important factor is the volume of oil production. Trump lifted restrictions on oil production in the USA, which will lead to an increase in its output. This will, on one hand, increase the volume of production, but on the other hand, reduce demand and lead to falling oil prices. This scenario could be a tool for pressure on Russia, as 30% of Russia's budget revenues depend on oil revenues.

Oleg Pendzin emphasized that forecasts regarding the volume of production and sale of Russian oil in 2025 and 2026 may not come true due to geopolitical and economic risks.