RAND Expert: Putin's Death More Likely Than a Coup to End His Rule.

The Future of Vladimir Putin's Leadership

According to TSN.ua: Dr. John Kennedy of the RAND think tank argues that Vladimir Putin's tenure is more likely to end with his death than through a violent overthrow. Despite internal pressures and economic difficulties, a coup appears improbable. At 73, Putin is Russia's longest-serving leader since Joseph Stalin. His advanced age is a significant factor in this assessment, as the Kremlin has not established a clear succession plan.

Kennedy notes that the death of Alexei Navalny did not trigger large-scale protests in Russia, indicating a lack of widespread public mobilization against the regime. A substantial portion of the Russian military is recruited from poorer regions, a factor that could influence social tensions within the country. Kennedy also emphasizes that Putin now rarely appears in public and is under heightened security.

War's Social Impact and Political Stability

The expert raises concerns about the potential consequences of continuing to channel resources into the war, suggesting that social discontent in the regions could accumulate and eventually erupt. These internal strains are unfolding against the backdrop of a costly and protracted conflict.

'The entire system depends on Putin. He has concentrated power in his hands, and this control has only intensified since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.' - John Kennedy

He further expresses the view that, in the medium to long term, the situation in Russia is ripe for change, and that the West must be prepared for any eventuality.

These comments reflect deep concerns about political stability in Russia, where the power structure is deeply personalized around Putin. Within the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine and internal economic hardships, this personalization could become a catalyst for change in the country. Observers may anticipate heightened social tension and potential repercussions for international relations should Russia's situation shift, underscoring the need for Western preparedness.