Woodward's Book "The War": U.S. Intelligence Accurately Predicted Russia's Invasion, but Missed in Other Ways.

According to data presented in Bob Woodward's new book "The War", American and European intelligence services made serious miscalculations in assessing the course of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

CIA Director William Burns admitted: "We anticipated that the Russians would do exactly what the American army would do - destroy the command and control system as well as the air defense system in the first 24 hours. They did not."

Alex Bick, the Director of Strategic Planning at the U.S. National Security Council, summed up: "We accurately predicted what they were going to do, where and when. Everything else we assessed incorrectly."

According to Bick, the U.S. underestimated the European response to the invasion, the resolve of the Ukrainians, and heavily overestimated the Russian armed forces.

Unforeseen Consequences

Some Pentagon assessments predicted the fall of Kyiv within the first 72-96 hours of the invasion's start. However, reality turned out quite differently.

On the fifth day of the war, February 28th, a 40-kilometer column of 15,000 Russian military personnel, tanks, and supply trucks was stuck in a massive traffic jam outside Kyiv.

"It wasn't something fantastic - what the Ukrainians did," noted Burns. "They methodically destroyed the first and last vehicles in the column and then went after every fuel truck. Soon, the Russians were stuck."

Intelligence Failures

These miscalculations by Western intelligence led to an unexpected turn of events in the early stages of the war. As John Finer, U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor, summarized: "We executed the best possible strategies. But looking at the outcome, it's hard to feel good. It is still a horrible war."

Recall, Woodward shared how Biden and Zelensky reacted to the initial information about Russia's plans to invade Ukraine.