Trump has abandoned the deadline for Ukraine: when will Russia enter real negotiations.

According to ТСН: It seems that US President Donald Trump has already abandoned the demand for Ukraine to agree to a peace deal by December. Further events may disappoint him. Ukrainian analysts believe that Russia is not ready for real negotiations until late winter, as this is when President Vladimir Putin will need to decide on a new mobilization, given that the country's economy is facing serious problems due to falling oil revenues and sanctions.

This was reported in an article in The Economist.

Consultations in Geneva between Ukraine and the USA have allowed the most difficult provisions from the initial 28-point peace plan, prepared by US President's special representative Steve Witkoff with active involvement from Moscow, to be removed. The updated document contains 19 points and includes softer restrictions for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (up to 800 thousand instead of 600 thousand), excludes the possibility of amnesty for war criminals, and does not mention the transfer of part of Russia's frozen assets to the USA.

At the same time, key contentious issues have been postponed for separate negotiations between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This relates to Russia's territorial claims, the constitutional enshrining of Ukraine's refusal to join NATO, and the formulation of American security guarantees. The planned meeting at the White House has been postponed.

Realism of the peace process: when to expect real negotiations

The prospects for the peace process are hard to assess. However, the current stages of American pressure and bargaining regarding Ukraine are the most significant of all previous ones.

“This is no longer a repetition of what happened before,” said a Western diplomat in Kyiv.

Negotiators are talking about “serious progress” that brings Ukrainian and Russian positions closer together.

“We are approaching the moment when we will have to say: yes, we are in the process, or no, this is the end,” explained an informed interlocutor.

However, according to his forecast, Moscow will only make concessions at the final stage, which, at best, will last another few months. The question is when exactly Russia will be ready to retreat “and what the situation on the front will be at that time”.

It seems that Trump has already abandoned the idea of forcing Ukraine to sign an agreement by December. He is likely to face disappointment ahead. Ukrainian experts believe that the Kremlin will not engage in real negotiations until the end of winter — this is when Putin will decide on a new mobilization, while the Russian economy will feel the pressure from declining oil revenues and sanctions.

Situation on the front

Some analysts assess the Ukrainian situation on the front as controlled. Russia has not yet shown the ability to turn slow tactical gains into a significant breakthrough.

“At this pace — and at this price — Russia cannot win strategically,” said former Ukrainian Minister of Defense Andriy Zahorodnyuk.

However, several key trends indicate a weakening of Ukrainian positions. The country is facing a shortage of military resources. Large-scale production of drones in Russia is beginning to pay off: drone strikes complicate Ukrainian logistical operations deep in the rear. New types of weapons, such as rocket strike drones and glide bombs, pose a threat of rendering eastern cities, including Kharkiv and Dnipro, uninhabitable. Russia may be weak in conquering territories, but it has a significant advantage in destroying infrastructure.

What could make Putin agree to peace?

Due to such prospects, many Ukrainians doubt that Putin will ever sign an agreement that allows Ukraine to preserve its statehood. Serious American pressure is needed to force Moscow into real concessions — and this is currently absent.

A former Ukrainian diplomat believes that the most effective strategy for Kyiv is to continue the war without losing the support of partners. For this, new financial inflows from abroad are needed, and at the moment, almost the entire burden falls on Europe. The EU summit in mid-December, at which decisions regarding the further fate of frozen Russian assets may be made, is becoming critical.

“The path has narrowed to a minimum. Avoid a conflict with Trump. Ensure the supply of weapons, financed by Europe. And then — wait, hoping that the Kremlin will reach a point where it recognizes the war as futile,” said an interlocutor of the publication.

Let us remind you that Trump stated he did not set deadlines for reaching a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, saying: “The deadline is when everything ends.” Trump claims that American representatives are making progress, and Russia has supposedly agreed to some concessions (details are not disclosed). Witkoff will travel to Moscow next week to meet with Putin to discuss the peace plan.

By the way, Ukrainian journalist Vitaliy Portnikov predicts a swift withdrawal of the so-called “Trump peace plan,” believing that this story will “dissolve” within a few days, repeating the fate of the “minerals agreement.”

According to the former head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Volodymyr Ohryzko, peace negotiations with Russia make no sense, as the Kremlin agrees to agreements only when it is beneficial for them. The diplomat stated that peace in Ukraine will be accelerated not by diplomacy, but by the destruction of the Russian economy, which is in critical condition. With Moscow, communication can only occur in the language of strength.