NBU: mass return of Ukrainians from abroad will not begin earlier than 2027.

According to ТСН: The National Bank of Ukraine predicts that the mass return of Ukrainians currently abroad will not begin earlier than 2027 and will occur slowly - approximately 100,000 people per year.

This information is provided in the regulator's inflation report. Experts emphasize that the speed of return will directly depend on the security situation, the pace of economic recovery, and the living conditions of Ukrainians in European countries.

Even after the active phase of the war ends, high risks will remain an important factor that will hinder the return to Ukraine. This concerns not only shelling of frontline territories but also possible missile strikes and the threat of terrorist acts in peaceful regions.

The National Bank adds that the policies of EU countries regarding Ukrainians - temporary protection, the possibility of long-term residence, access to the labor market, and education - reduce the desire to return home quickly. Even after the improvement of the security situation, some citizens will remain abroad due to more stable living conditions and slow economic recovery in Ukraine.

According to NBU forecasts:

• 2025: net population outflow will be about 200,000 people.

• 2026: Migration outflows will remain at approximately 200,000 people.

• 2027: a net return is expected - about 100,000 people, which is five times less than previous estimates (0.5 million).

According to data, in the first half of 2025, the number of Ukrainian migrants increased by 60,000 people. This is less than in the first half of 2024, when over 200,000 people left the country.

According to UN data, as of July 1, 2025, 5.6 million Ukrainians are abroad. High security risks, including shelling by the Russian Federation, confirm the continued emigration of citizens.

It was also noted that Ukraine could lose most of its migrants: up to 70% may remain abroad. This creates a risk of labor shortages and a new wave of emigration after the war.

Thus, the forecast of the National Bank indicates that the slow return of Ukrainian migrants to the country is the result of long-term challenges that Ukraine will face after the war. High security risks and the still unstable economic situation may significantly affect the trends of citizen return, which, in turn, will have serious consequences for the future labor market in Ukraine.