Why Russia's Offensive Continues: The Kremlin's Calculus of War Over Peace.

War as a Tool of Political Pressure

According to UATV: Analyst Yaroslav Teleshun notes that the Kremlin views continuing the war as less costly than pursuing peace. This approach, despite heavy losses and a lack of major battlefield successes, demonstrates Russia's readiness to use military action as a tool for political pressure. Even minor military gains can be converted into diplomatic or propaganda victories, highlighting the Kremlin's drive for advantage in any form.

Expanding Military Footprint

Russia is actively collaborating with mercenaries and recruiters in Latin America and Asia, which may signal its intent to expand its military presence and influence in these regions. Yaroslav Teleshun emphasizes that, despite the absence of desired results, Russia is calculating the price of war against the price of peace. This points to the Kremlin's aim of sustaining military operations, even if they fail to deliver significant strategic victories.

According to Teleshun, such actions demonstrate Russia's absolute nihilism toward the value of human life. An intensified mobilization process could substantially alter the unspoken pact between the state and its society. There exists a type of legitimacy based on apathy and political alienation, which Russia appears to be trying to maintain. It is also important to note that Russian officials in negotiation processes focus on achieving outcomes that appear successful for them, regardless of the actual context of the situation.

This situation indicates that the Kremlin, despite external pressure and internal problems, continues to adhere to a strategy of military action designed to strengthen its political position. This ongoing conflict, now in its third year, has fundamentally reshaped European security. Simultaneously, its activity in mercenary recruitment may signal attempts by Russia to bolster its military resources and influence in new regions, which could have serious consequences for international security. The costs of war, which Russia assesses as lower than the costs of peace, may lead to further escalation of the conflict unless constructive international dialogue is achieved.