New Ukrainian counteroffensive: when and with what forces it will begin.

According to The Times, Ukraine plans to undertake a new counteroffensive in 2025. Western equipment and new brigades, which are already actively being formed, will be used for this purpose.

The Times predicts that Russian troops will continue offensive actions in southeastern Ukraine and may lose Pokrovsk, an important road and rail hub, this autumn. It will be a long and bloody struggle, in which the Russians will lose up to a thousand military personnel a day.

It is forecasted that the Russian offensive in the Donbas will reach its peak after the fall of Pokrovsk, after which the fighting will become localized. During this period, both sides will be regrouping for further operations.

From 2025, Ukraine plans to conduct a counteroffensive using new Western equipment. It is likely that Kyiv will receive permission to use American ATACMS missiles and British Storm Shadow missiles to strike targets on Russian territory. In addition, Ukrainian forces are already successfully using their own missiles and drones to strike Russian ammunition depots.

An important factor in this war is the reduction of the Russian advantage in firepower. At the beginning of the year, Russian troops had an advantage of 8 artillery shells for every one fired by the Ukrainian side, but now this ratio has decreased to 3 to 1.

Ukraine receives support from Western partners, particularly through increased ammunition production. However, Russia's allies, such as China, North Korea, and Iran, demand financial compensation for their assistance, which puts additional pressure on the Russian economy.

Recall that Ukrainian troops in the Donbas are employing retreat tactics.