Resignation of Yermak: how the change of the Head of the Presidential Office will affect power in Ukraine.

According to ТСН: The resignation of Andriy Yermak from the position of Head of the Presidential Office was a significant event in the political life of Ukraine, perceived as a 'mini-revolution' in the governance system established during Volodymyr Zelensky's presidency.

Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko talks about the possible consequences for the country's political arena.

Less manual management and the end of the 'personalized model'

Fesenko emphasizes that Yermak's influence was based on a system of manual management, which was closely related to him personally and his proximity to the president. With his resignation, the new Head of the Presidential Office will not have the same level of trust and levers of influence, which will, in turn, reduce the personal influence of this position.

At the same time, the overall control of the president over the government, law enforcement agencies, and regional administrations will remain unchanged. However, the situation in the Verkhovna Rada may complicate, as the 'monoband' will begin to show signs of decay, and Yermak's resignation may only accelerate this process.

Possible changes in the information field

Fesenko expects significant changes in the media environment, particularly around the national telethon and the Telegram network, which have long been associated with Yermak.

Interestingly, his resignation may stabilize the internal situation, as it will reduce the political tension that has arisen due to the negative attitude towards Yermak from part of the elites and the public.

Impact on international relations: rather positive

Fesenko believes that the impact of the resignation in the field of foreign policy will be positive. European partners have long demanded changes in the leadership of the Presidential Office, and the corruption scandal has only intensified these demands.Americans also did not like Yermak's working style, particularly his closed nature and monopoly on access to Zelensky, although there were no questions about his negotiating positions in the U.S.

'It is not Yermak's resignation that weakens Zelensky's international positions, but the large-scale corruption scandal'

Will Ukraine's negotiating position weaken?

According to the expert, Ukraine's negotiating position may even strengthen. The determination of the negotiating line remains with the president and his team, not with individuals. The key negotiator has become the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Rustem Umerov, who has experience in negotiations with the U.S. and Russia. The only potential problem is his mention in the NABU proceedings.

Who can head the Presidential Office

Fesenko notes that Zelensky does not have a clearly defined favorite for this position. Several options are being considered:

1. Experienced government officials: Yuliya Svyrydenko, Denys Shmyhal, Mykhailo Fedorov.Appointment of such individuals will require decisions from parliament and may lead to government crises.

2. Someone from Yermak's deputies: individuals who have experience in the structure and trust from Zelensky.

3. An unconventional option — a military personnel:the possible candidate is Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of the Presidential Office, Colonel, responsible for military policy and negotiations with the U.S.

Fesenko considers the latest meetings of Zelensky with high-ranking officials essentially as 'interviews' for potential candidates.

Can Yermak retain influence?

The political scientist considers the scenario of 'shadow management' unlikely. Yermak may remain an informal advisor, but any signs of his influence will provoke sharp criticism towards the president.

Thus, his political resource is virtually minimal, especially against the backdrop of NABU investigations.

What preceded

Recall that the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree on the dismissal of Andriy Yermak from the position of Head of the Presidential Office after NABU and SAP conducted sanctioned searches at Yermak's house within the framework of a criminal proceeding.

This resignation marks an important stage in the political life of Ukraine, which may significantly affect the country's future. Negotiations at the international level, as well as internal dynamics in the political environment, will undoubtedly undergo changes as a result of these events.