Ceasefire: How it Could Happen and What Global Experience Suggests?.


The cessation of hostilities in Ukraine depends on reaching political agreements. It is necessary to establish the conditions and duration of the ceasefire on the front line and ensure compliance. According to retired General Igor Romanenko, this issue is technical, and before discussing technological solutions for ceasefire, it is essential to outline the strategic perspective.
A simultaneous order from the supreme commanders of Ukraine and Russia is needed for a ceasefire, after which negotiations will be held regarding the withdrawal of troops. The withdrawal process can be complicated and lengthy, as it is necessary to create joint working groups to develop the required technologies.
According to Colonel Andriy Ilyenko, the withdrawal of troops may take a significant amount of Time. He also points out that global experience cannot be fully applied to the situation in Ukraine, as previous wars of similar scale ended with one side's defeat. The end of the Korean War in 1953 may serve as some indication, but it does not entirely correspond to the current situation.
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy proposes creating a buffer zone at least 10 km wide along the line of combat engagement. This zone should be patrolled by civilians and police. Foreign military personnel and a joint international commission of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers will also participate in monitoring the compliance with the ceasefire.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky plans to end the war by 2025. However, U.S. President Donald Trump believes that the chances of returning to pre-war borders are slim, and former U.S. Special Representative to Ukraine Kurt Volker asserts that Ukraine will not be able to regain occupied territories through military means.
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