Why Putin Avoids a Full Mobilization: The Kremlin's Fear of Losing Public Trust.

The Mobilization Dilemma in Russia

According to TSN.ua: Vladimir Putin is refusing to declare a full-scale mobilization in Russia, primarily due to the risk of a severe loss of public confidence. The country is facing a critical shortage of combat personnel to cover losses on the front lines, a situation causing deep concern within the military leadership. According to data, in January alone, Russia suffered 9,000 more casualties than it could replace with new recruits. This threatens the nation's ability to sustain its military campaign in Ukraine, a conflict now in its third year.

Recruiting Migrants and the Belarusian Situation

To address the manpower crisis, Russia is attempting to recruit migrants from Central Asia.

As noted by Pavlo Lakiichuk, 'Russia is forced to recruit migrants from Central Asia for the war.'

Alternative resources, such as convicts, have been largely exhausted, with dozens of Russian pre-trial detention centers and penal colonies reportedly closed due to a lack of inmates. Meanwhile, 10,000 North Koreans are already present in northern Ukraine and could potentially be drawn into combat operations.

The situation in neighboring Belarus is also raising concerns. Large-scale measures are underway there to call up reserve officers and reservists. As of recent statements, at least 400 reserve officers have been mobilized.

As Pavlo Latushka stated, 'this is essentially a covert mobilization.'

However, the situation remains uncertain, as Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, according to Lakiichuk, 'does not want to give it up, but he can be pushed aside.'

Consequently, Russia finds itself in a difficult position, trying to solve its severe troop shortage without resorting to a general mobilization. The recruitment of migrants and the potential use of Belarusian reserves may offer a temporary way out of the crisis, but the issue of public trust continues to be a key challenge for the Russian authorities. Against a backdrop of growing domestic criticism and discontent, further developments could significantly impact Russia's internal political stability and its military capabilities in the conflict.