Expert Analysis: Why Putin Will Avoid a New Mobilization in Russia.
Expert Commentary on Russian Mobilization
According to UATV: In an interview with the FREEДOM TV channel, expert Dmitry Snegirev stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has no plans to announce a new wave of mobilization, despite persistent rumors fueled by the ongoing war in Ukraine. Snegirev pointed out that Russia currently has between 720,000 and 750,000 personnel committed to the conflict, a figure which indicates the substantial resources already at its disposal.
Dmitry Snegirev further emphasized that, despite the legal framework allowing for a general mobilization, Putin will not dare to take this step. In his view,
“Putin has essentially been trapped by his own ideological constructs,”stated Snegirev. He warned that prolonging the war and initiating a new mobilization could have severe repercussions for the Russian political leadership. Snegirev noted,
“This could have catastrophic consequences for Russian political authority. The Putin regime is terrified of social upheaval in the wake of military setbacks,”he concluded.
Internal Political Situation
The expert also highlighted the recent blocking of Telegram in the Russian Federation, an action he believes was deliberate. According to Snegirev,
“The blocking of Telegram in the Russian Federation is not accidental, as the platform is used, among other things, by Russian military personnel themselves as a backup communication channel.”He interprets this move as evidence of the regime's fear of potential internal destabilization.
It is worth noting that elections for the State Duma and other government bodies are scheduled for September 20, 2023, which could further influence the political landscape in Russia. Against the backdrop of existing challenges related to the war, questions of mobilization and internal stability remain a focal point for both experts and the public. The Kremlin's actions are closely watched as it balances military needs with domestic political control.
The situation in Russia, particularly regarding the military conflict and upcoming political processes, remains tense. The decision to forgo a new mobilization likely reflects the Kremlin's desire to avoid social unrest that could exacerbate internal problems. The blocking of Telegram similarly indicates the authorities' concern over the platform's potential use for organizing protests among the population and military personnel. Thus, events are unfolding within a complex political environment that demands close attention from analysts and society alike.
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