Russia's Shift to Training Missiles Against Ukraine Signals Depleting Arsenal.

Deployment of RM-48U Training Missiles

According to Novyny.live: Russian forces have begun firing RM-48U training missiles at Ukrainian territory, a move analysts suggest may indicate dwindling stocks of standard S-300 and S-400 missiles. These surface-to-air missiles were used in strikes on January 20, 2025. According to available data, Russia had stockpiled over 400 RM-48U missiles in its warehouses as of December 1, 2025. This development highlights the resource pressures of a prolonged war of attrition.

New Tactics by Russian Military Forces

In October 2023, Russian troops conducted tests of surface-to-surface missiles for the 51P6 launcher of the S-400 system. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported on January 20 that Russia had begun attacking Ukraine with missiles and drones in new ways. Regarding the January 20 attack, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note it remains unclear whether these training missiles were used as decoys or were fitted with live warheads.

ISW analysts also emphasize that Russia has long repurposed S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missiles to strike ground targets in Ukraine. This new use of training munitions, against a backdrop of reduced stocks of other missile types, may signal an adaptation in Russian military tactics within the ongoing conflict. The repurposing of air defense systems for ground attack is a known, if inefficient, Russian practice.

The deployment of RM-48U training missiles for attacks may point to a critical situation with Russia's combat inventories, underscoring the complex nature of the military operations. A reduction in S-300 and S-400 missile stocks and a shift to alternative armaments could alter the conflict's dynamics, presenting new challenges for Ukraine's defense. These events indicate tactical adaptation by Russian forces, which may necessitate new counter-strategies from the Ukrainian military to address the evolving threats.