Forecast for 2026: War, Crisis in the USA, and the Threat of NATO Splitting.

According to ТСН: The world is experiencing a phase of serious instability, where the war in Ukraine is combined with a political crisis in the USA and the threat of losing NATO unity. Forecasts for 2026 indicate possible strikes on energy, a lack of progress in negotiations, and risks of escalation in relations between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan issues.

Renowned journalist and political analyst Vitaliy Portnikov notes that the coming year will be even more challenging than the previous one, as 'this chaos will only intensify' in regional and global contexts.

Front and Energy War

According to the analyst, hostilities in 2026 will remain systemic, although their intensity may decrease compared to the second half of 2025. The main blow from the aggressor will again be aimed at civilian infrastructure.

'Russia will continue to strike our energy infrastructure, especially on the left bank of the Dnipro. Their goal is to cause blackouts again and disrupt the system,' notes Portnikov.

Ukraine, in turn, will focus on exhausting the Russian budget through attacks on Russia's oil industry. Portnikov emphasizes that this will work in synergy with new American sanctions and is skeptical about the diplomatic track, believing that negotiations will continue 'without real results.'

Risks for the West and the 'Greenland Scenario'

One of the most significant parts of the forecast is the threat to the unity of the collective West. The observer points out that internal ambitions in the USA could jeopardize NATO's existence.

'The worst-case scenario is a forceful attempt by the USA to establish control over Greenland. This would be a disaster that could threaten NATO's future and cause a split in the EU,' warns the journalist.

At the same time, Russia is ramping up its hybrid war in Europe, attempting to destabilize EU countries amidst a lack of quick victories on the front.

The Trump Factor and China

The internal situation in the USA in 2026 will depend on Donald Trump's desire to remain in power. Against the backdrop of Congressional elections and the threat of impeachment, Washington's decisions may be unpredictable.

'Many decisions of the Trump administration, which may seem illogical from the perspective of foreign policy, will actually be quite rational from the logic of his personal struggle for survival in power,' believes the observer.

This internal weakness of the USA may be exploited by China. Portnikov does not rule out that Xi Jinping will begin to use the Taiwan issue to blackmail the White House, trying to strengthen Beijing's position in the region while Western attention is scattered on internal conflicts and the war in Ukraine.

Recall that previously Portnikov emphasized that the upcoming meeting of the 'Coalition of Willing' leaders should not just be another platform for words of support, but a stage for transitioning to real actions.