Shocking forecast: what will happen to the population of Ukraine after the war.

Increase in mortality due to ongoing war

Olexandr Hladun, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, stated that the ongoing war in Ukraine has caused an increase in the mortality rate. According to him, the population of Ukraine has been declining since 1993, but the process has become even faster in 2022 due to migration. In the future, further reduction in population is expected, which will depend on the duration of the war and the results of demographic policy. The main goal of Ukraine is to stabilize the population after the conflict ends.

Olexandr Hladun noted that the situation with mortality in Ukraine is alarming, although there is no accurate calculation. Statistics provided by the Members of Parliament show that from January to June 2024, 87,655 people were born, and 250,972 citizens died. However, these data cannot be compared to previous years due to constant changes in the controlled territory.

There is also a problem with fertility in the country. Experts use the fertility rate, which indicates the average number of children born to one woman during her reproductive period. In 2019, this figure was 116 children per 100 women, which is twice as low as necessary to avoid a decrease in population due to natural decline. The impact on fertility is also influenced by the coronavirus and the war, which have led to a decrease in this indicator.