Foot-and-mouth disease outbreak: how will it affect milk prices in Ukraine.

In the domestic market of Ukraine, prices for raw milk are stabilizing, but the industry is facing several serious threats.

According to the analyst of the Milk Producers Association, Georgiy Kukhaleyshvili, further price reductions may occur due to a decrease in the export of dry and raw milk, the introduction of protectionist measures in external markets, and the spread of foot-and-mouth disease.

As of April 23, the average purchasing price for extra grade milk was 16.15 UAH/kg excluding VAT, which is 20 kopecks less than a month ago. Higher grade milk has dropped to 15.95 UAH/kg, while first grade costs 15.60 UAH/kg excluding VAT. The weighted average price of the three grades was 16.00 UAH/kg.

Despite the relative stability of price ranges, the domestic market is oversaturated with milk, and production rates outweigh sales volumes. The import of dairy products, especially cheeses, is rapidly increasing and already occupies nearly 50% of grocery store shelves, threatening the survival of Ukrainian producers.

An additional threat is the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Slovakia and Hungary. If the virus spreads to Ukraine, a sharp decline in prices may occur due to quarantine restrictions and an export ban.

Kukhaleyshvili noted that biosecurity on farms should become a priority, as under the restrictions in neighboring countries, Ukraine may have the opportunity to strengthen its export positions.

We also remind you how prices for popular dairy products have changed over the month.

Analysis

The Ukrainian milk market is stabilizing but is facing serious threats from declining exports, increasing imports, and the spread of foot-and-mouth disease. To strengthen its market positions, Ukraine must pay special attention to biosecurity on farms and avoid the spread of the disease. This will help not only protect domestic producers but also support raw milk prices at an acceptable level.