Russian Advance Rates Have Increased, But They Still Move Slowly – ISW.

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) claim that the rate of advancement of Russian forces in Ukraine is increasing, although it remains slow and corresponds to a positional warfare. They emphasize that previous reports about the speed of Russian advancement in April 2024 were misleading. In March 2022, Russian forces moved at a speed of 1265 square kilometers per day, while in September 2024, this speed was only 14 square kilometers. Analysts believe that while the recent successes of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine are significant, they do not compare to the first month of the invasion. Recently, Russian forces have been advancing slowly and achieving small tactical successes.

According to ISW, Russian forces are trying to accelerate their advance in Ukraine. However, it is worth noting that about 200,000 Russian military personnel are deployed in southern Ukraine, and there are no observed declared offensive groups.

Key Findings by ISW as of October 29:

• The pace of Russian advancement in Ukraine has increased in recent weeks, but remains slow and corresponds more to positional warfare than to rapid mechanized maneuvers, highlighting how generally stagnant the Russian offensive actions have been after more than two and a half years of the war.
• Putin attempted to use annual Russian nuclear deterrence exercises to further spread templated informational narratives regarding “nuclear saber-rattling,” aiming to influence decision-making in the West.
• Recent Russian sociological surveys suggest that domestic support for local authorities in Russia has slightly decreased over the past year, most likely in response to increased crypto-mobilization efforts at the regional level.
• Russian officials and so-called military bloggers are conducting informational operations that falsely portray peaceful and lawful protests of the Georgian opposition against establishing the results of the October 26 parliamentary elections as an illegal state coup, sponsored by the West and Ukraine.
• Georgian protests were peaceful and lawful – far from Russian claims of an illegal state coup.
• These coordinated efforts by Russia to groundlessly discredit the Georgian pro-Western opposition and civil society are part of the Kremlin's general tactics aimed at portraying legitimate and justified demands of pro-Western political forces in the post-Soviet space as illegitimate and violent.
• Recently, Ukrainian forces advanced in Toretsk, and Russian forces – near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and southwest of Donetsk.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to rely on Russian prisoners to replace depleted Russian units at the front.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are conducting a stabilization operation near the village of Levadne, where the enemy has entrenched. This is an important junction in the south of the Donetsk region, and it effectively borders the Dnipropetrovsk region.