37% of Russia’s Oil Refineries Knocked Out by Strikes: A Heavy Blow to the Federal Budget.

Assessing the State of Russia’s Economy

According to Espreso.tv: Economist Andriy Dligach, who holds a doctorate in economic sciences, has evaluated how Ukraine’s infrastructure attacks are reshaping Russia’s economic landscape. He reports that 37% of Russian oil refining capacity is now offline, a development that will severely strain the country’s finances. According to Dligach, disabling more than 35% of these facilities is the critical threshold needed to trigger a systemic collapse of Russia’s logistics network.

With refining capabilities reduced, Dligach warns that federal budget revenues could drop by 15–20%. This shortfall would likely force cuts in military spending, which currently remains the top budget priority. To provide context, these strikes are part of a broader Ukrainian strategy to weaken Russia’s war effort by targeting its economic backbone.

“Russia will have no choice but to reduce military expenditures, as they now represent the main category of spending,” stated Andriy Dligach.

Potential Fallout for Businesses

In response to drone attacks on oil refineries, Russia is now planning to import gasoline by sea. This move signals serious fuel supply disruptions, which will ripple across numerous industries within the country.

“Many businesses across entire sectors are operating at a loss,” Dligach emphasized.

The economist also noted that international airlines are expected to halt flights to and from Russia, further compounding the crisis. On the night of June 16, units from Ukraine’s Defense Forces struck military and infrastructure targets inside Russia, continuing a campaign designed to pressure the adversary’s economy.

This analysis shows that Russia’s economy is facing profound challenges, and further Ukrainian actions could significantly undermine its stability. As oil processing declines and military budgets come under threat, Russia finds itself under mounting pressure—a shift that will likely impact not only domestic policy but also its foreign relations and military ambitions.