Butter prices rise again in Ukraine: why the forecasts failed.

According to ТСН: Despite forecasts of price decreases, butter in Ukraine has risen again in price. In October, producers promised that the cost would decrease by at least 10%, but by the end of the year, everything took a completely different direction. Warehouses are overflowing with thousands of tons of products, while prices on the shelves are only rising.

Warehouses are full — and that is not a problem

The executive director of the Dairy Enterprises Union, Arsen Didura, notes that the information about 'critical surpluses' is somewhat exaggerated. Stocks were formed in the summer when Ukraine temporarily could not export products to the EU due to technical delays in the association agreement.

The chairman of the supervisory board of the Union, Vadym Chaharovskyi, clarifies that the current approximately 10 thousand tons of butter is a normal two-month supply for a season when internal consumption falls due to heat, and milk processing into butter and dry milk increases.

The chairman of the Dairy Alliance, Serhii Vovchenko, adds that a three-month supply for production is also the norm, and butter in frozen blocks can be stored without losing quality for up to six months or more.

Why prices have not decreased

Although producers have reduced their wholesale prices — a packaged bar at the factory costs 70–80 UAH, retail does not rush to adjust prices on the shelves.

Experts explain this:

• increased markups in networks,

• attempts to compensate for a smaller average check,

• expectation of pre-holiday demand,

• price inertia in retail — changes reach the consumer with a delay of 4–6 weeks.

Europe is collapsing the market

The global market affects Ukraine more strongly than internal production. The price of a ton of butter in Europe has decreased from 8,500 euros to 5,000 euros since June and continues to fall. The reason is global overproduction in the USA, New Zealand and the EU.

Ukrainian butter is produced at a cost of 6,500 euros per ton, so selling it for export below market prices is unprofitable. This leads to an increase in domestic stocks.

Is butter from warehouses safe

Experts agree: with proper storage, butter can last a long time.

• at a temperature of -18°C — shelf life up to 2 years.

• at a temperature of -32°C — complete preservation of properties.

Stores do not indicate the two-year shelf life as it refers to consumer packaging. Butter is stored in blocks of 25 kg, and the date on the package is stamped only after packaging.

Do blackouts threaten prices

Dairy plants assure that there will be no sharp price jump due to power outages. Enterprises are equipped with generators and cogeneration plants, and competition from cheap imports will not allow prices to rise significantly.

When will prices finally drop

Retail is already launching Christmas promotions. Ukrainian networks are offering butter for 82–85 UAH, while in Lidl in Europe it costs 1.5 euros (about 75 UAH).

Experts predict a price drop of 25–30% in December–January, and the downward trend will continue for at least until Easter 2026.

Is it worth stocking up

Experts recommend buying gradually, as prices will decline, and also freezing for 3-6 months if possible. Don't forget to keep an eye on promotions — especially before the holidays, discounts are usually the highest — from 25% to 35%.

It was previously reported that butter production in Ukraine had ceased, as warehouses were supposedly filled with product.

For the first time in recent years, the output of products has fallen below previous levels, and approximately 10 thousand tons of goods have accumulated in warehouses that have nowhere to go.