Ukraine's War at Four Years: A Stalled Frontline and Mobilization Crisis.

The State of Ukraine Four Years After Russia's Full-Scale Invasion

According to TSN.ua: Four years into Russia's full-scale invasion, the conflict in Ukraine remains arduous and complex. Russian forces currently occupy approximately 18-19% of Ukrainian territory. Over the past year, they have managed to seize an additional 4,700 square kilometers, indicating continued military activity despite a broader operational stalemate.

As analyst Dmytro Kuznets notes: 'At present, the Russian war machine is functioning well enough; the authorities are capable of covering current losses in personnel and equipment.'

Mobilization Struggles and Internal Risks

Ukraine's mobilization efforts face severe challenges. In November 2025, the country's Prosecutor General's Office reported 310,000 unprocessed cases related to soldiers leaving their units without authorization and desertion. Furthermore, around two million Ukrainian citizens are being sought for violations of military registration rules. This situation critically undermines the state's ability to replenish its forces. The strain of a prolonged war is testing the resilience of Ukrainian society and its institutions.

Risks of internal destabilization are also pressing. During an awards ceremony on February 23, Vladimir Putin emphasized the 'responsibility' of the military and all citizens for the country's future, a statement widely interpreted as applying societal pressure amid high casualties.

Expert Ella Paneyakh points out that 'to justify enormous losses to the population, Vladimir Putin needs a 'major victory'.'

Given these circumstances, the prospect of negotiations with Putin remains an open question. As lawmaker Oleksandra Ustinova states: 'I don't think parliament would ever pass anything like that. It would be perceived as capitulation.' The political landscape in Ukraine is therefore fraught with complexity, presenting numerous urgent challenges. The path to a diplomatic resolution is obstructed by fundamental disagreements over the status of occupied territories.

Amid a protracted war and significant internal and external pressures, Ukraine confronts serious threats to its territorial integrity and stability. The mobilization crisis, high military casualties, and rising societal strain call into question the government's capacity to manage the ongoing crisis effectively. Simultaneously, Russia's efforts to consolidate control over seized territories further complicate any prospects for peace talks and a stable resolution to the conflict.