Fuel Demand Set to Surge 40-140% from February 27 Following Refinery Shutdown.

Sharp Increase in Demand for Oil Products in Ukraine

According to Novyny.live: Ukraine is bracing for a dramatic spike in demand for refined oil products starting February 27, 2026. This surge is a direct consequence of the shutdown of the country's largest oil refinery, forcing a greater reliance on imported fuel. Specifically, demand for A-95 gasoline is projected to jump by 40-70%, while demand for diesel fuel is expected to skyrocket by 60-140%.

According to market operators, 'purchase volumes for oil products have increased by 40-70% for gasoline and 60-140% for diesel fuel respectively,' stated Pavlo Kyrylenko. This development has raised significant concerns among experts and government officials. In response, the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (AMCU) has launched an investigation into potential anti-competitive practices within the fuel market.

Key Factors Driving Up Oil Product Prices

Several critical factors are converging to push prices for oil products higher:

• A sharp rise in demand coupled with a reduction in supply and available reserves;
• An increase in the actual purchase cost of oil products;
• Higher expenses for logistics and transportation;
• The inability to adequately compare fuel storage conditions and capacities within Ukraine's territory.

Danylo Hetmantsev has voiced apprehension about a potential shortage of fuel and lubricants, warning that it could materialize as early as this spring. This situation demands an urgent response from both the state and industry players to prevent possible supply crises for oil products in Ukraine.

The soaring demand highlights not just economic pressures but also the broader social challenges facing the nation. The refinery's stoppage exposes the vulnerability of the domestic market, which could lead to higher consumer prices and potential supply disruptions. While actions by state bodies, such as the AMCU probe, are a crucial step toward ensuring market stability, the situation raises serious questions about Ukraine's future energy security. The country's fuel market remains heavily influenced by the ongoing conflict, which continues to disrupt critical infrastructure and supply chains.