What the Future Trump Deal Regarding Ukraine Will Look Like: Details from NYT.
President-elect Donald Trump made promises regarding Ukraine, Iran, China, and global crises. But he must make a choice, particularly there, regarding Ukraine. This is reported by The New York Times.
Russia is isolated and bogged down in Ukraine. China is experiencing economic and demographic decline. Iran has never been weaker. And finally – after 15 months of intense diplomacy – a truce has been initiated between Israel and HAMAS, hostages are to be released,” writes NYT.
The publication notes that Putin is unlikely seeking an agreement that would pull him out of a war that has already cost Russia many human lives.
Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, suggested: “let’s set this (ceasefire) for 100 days,” to ensure that “the solution is reliable and sustainable” and that this war will end.
Trump stated that he will soon meet with Putin, which is of great importance, especially due to the lack of communication between Biden and the Russian dictator.
The Hard Part of the Agreement
Most officials on both Biden's and Trump's teams acknowledge that Russia will likely retain about 20% of the territory of Ukraine that it currently occupies, as part of a ceasefire, similar to what occurred in the Korean War in 1953.
The difficult part of any agreement is the security deal. There are no guarantees that Putin will not take advantage of a cessation of hostilities to strengthen his forces, recruit, and train new troops.
Joe Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan claims that the Biden administration has created a framework for security assurance. However, President Zelensky believes that only NATO membership will prevent Putin from launching a new attack.
Potential Ceasefire
A ceasefire could be ensured by European peacekeeping forces, in which the U.S. may play a central role. It will be crucial whether the U.S. wants to maintain this role in terms of intelligence, arms, and permission for Ukraine to strike against Russia.
Sullivan emphasizes that it is important for Trump to continue military support, which will not please many members of his party.
Russia wants a broader agreement that includes the withdrawal of U.S. weapons and troops from Europe. Nothing is yet known from Trump’s side on this matter, notes NYT.
Let it be reminded that President Donald Trump's team is organizing a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This was reported by Trump's appointed national security adviser Mike Waltz.
Also, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky does not plan to meet with Trump and Putin to sign a peace deal.
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