Expert on Ukraine's security: why one should not rely on NATO Article 5.

According to ТСН: Ukraine should focus not on NATO's Article 5, but on forming an alternative security framework, as dictator Putin cannot effectively exist without war.

This opinion was expressed by strategic communications consultant Yuriy Bohdanov.

About NATO's Article 5

According to Bohdanov, NATO's collective security system remains untested, as Article 5 of the Alliance has been invoked only once - after the terrorist attacks against the United States.

"I think NATO itself still does not fully understand how Article 5 works. It has effectively been applied only once - after the Al-Qaeda attack on the United States," Bohdanov noted.

The expert emphasizes that in light of Putin's threats to the Baltic States, the question of how the Alliance will respond to a real threat remains open.

"We see absolutely open threats from Putin to those same Baltic countries - Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia. And we really do not know how this article will work in a real crisis," the expert emphasized.

Security guarantees for Ukraine

According to Bohdanov, there are only two main security guarantees for Ukraine - its Armed Forces and the ability to finance them stably and provide them with arms.

"There are two real security guarantees: the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the country's ability to finance them and supply them with weapons. This is what we need to focus on," Bohdanov explained.

He also noted that maintaining an army of 800,000 personnel in peacetime is unsustainable for the Ukrainian economy.

"Ukraine simply does not have the funds to maintain such an army, even if we direct the entire budget to it. Until the economy recovers, we need external guarantees of financing and arms supply, especially aviation," he emphasized.

Geopolitical challenges

Bohdanov also noted that Russia poses a threat not only to Ukraine but also to other NATO countries, regardless of whether they are official Alliance members or not.

"We must understand that Russia threatens NATO countries as well. And this is precisely why we need to talk about a different security framework - Scandinavia, Ukraine, the Baltic States, Poland, Germany, France, the United Kingdom," the expert noted.

These states have common interests, and Ukraine is unique due to its combat experience.

"Ukraine is the only democratic country in Europe that has full-fledged combat experience. And this makes us an important element of the future European security framework," Bohdanov emphasized.

Defense plans and negotiations

The expert believes that Ukraine and Europe should agree on a common defense plan in advance in case of a Russian attack, as Putin cannot abandon war as a tool of policy.

"The prospect of an attack on the Baltic States may be much closer than 2026-2027. If Putin understands that he has reached a dead end in Ukraine, he may try to destabilize Europe - either hybridly or directly," the expert explained.

He separately criticized the current negotiation processes, characterizing them as imitative.

"The mechanisms for ceasefire, troop withdrawal, and security guarantees are not being discussed essentially. They are not broken down into specific management decisions that can be implemented in reality," he said.

Bohdanov concluded that the current formulations do not lead to peace.

"I see neither capitulation nor real peace there. This is a process for the sake of the process. For Russia, these formulations are unacceptable, and Putin still hopes to outlast it," he concluded.

Thus, Yuriy Bohdanov's opinion emphasizes the importance of forming an alternative security model for Ukraine, as the situation remains tense. The expert stresses the need to strengthen its own forces to effectively respond to threats from Russia and be prepared for a new phase of geopolitical challenges.