The dollar soared to 41.9 hryvnias: why the currency has sharply appreciated.

According to inkorr.com: In Ukraine, the dollar has again appreciated: the official exchange rate has risen by more than 70 kopecks and as of October 24 stands at 41.9 hryvnias. This is the highest level since the summer of 2024. According to the Ministry of Finance and expert opinions, the changes are associated with irregular actions of the National Bank of Ukraine and the sentiments of the International Monetary Fund. This is

written by RBC-Ukraine.

Why the dollar exchange rate is rising in October

Since October 2023, a managed flexibility exchange rate regime has been introduced in Ukraine, meaning that the value of the dollar is determined by the market, but the NBU intervenes to avoid sharp fluctuations. In October, the regulator sold less currency from reserves, which caused a dollar shortage in the interbank market.

According to Yurii Krohmalia, head of sales at Avangard Bank, the exchange rate has fluctuated between 41.2 and 41.8 hryvnias during this month. The largest currency shortage was observed in the middle of the month: in just four working days from October 13 to 17, it reached 361 million dollars, and on October 17 it could exceed 500 million. To cover the demand, the NBU sold 603 million dollars, which is 18% less than the previous week.

The role of the IMF and the position of the National Bank

ICU investment company analysts note that the National Bank was not in a hurry to actively intervene in the market in October, effectively allowing the hryvnia to weaken. This is likely due to negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, which supports a gradual devaluation approach of the national currency.

According to Bloomberg data, the IMF believes that the depreciation of the hryvnia may help Ukraine increase budget revenues in national currency and improve macro-financial stability. The Fund insists on gradual devaluation as part of the discussions on a new financing package of about 8 billion dollars.

Earlier, it was reported that experts from the International Monetary Fund predict that the average dollar rate in 2025 may be 42.5 UAH.

Thus, the rise in the dollar rate is caused by a combination of market factors and decisions made by the National Bank. In conditions of increased dollar demand and expectations of an exchange rate change, an important component of the situation is the interaction with the IMF, which will determine the financial stability of the country in the coming years.