Budanov on US strategy and Ukraine's strength: how strikes on refineries change the balance.

Discussion on the realities of war and Ukraine's responsibility

According to ТСН: "We constantly hear that Ukrainians need to be talked to as adults. Our head of the GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, demonstrated maximum realism and openness in an interview with Suspilne. Of course, this is within the limits of what is possible for the head of intelligence. However, not everyone liked such truth. Acknowledging that the world does not revolve around you and taking responsibility for what is happening is naturally disadvantageous," Schneider noted.

He emphasized that Budanov directly states that the USA has its own interests, which may not coincide with our notions of justice.

"But that’s the way it is: for the USA, the strategic threat is China, while Russia is a factor that either reduces or increases that threat. This explains the US logic during negotiations to end the war. Yes, Washington also benefits from ending our war: this involves both Trump's ambitions and simply a calculation—to remove the factor that hinders rapprochement with Russia, which, in the view of Trump's team, will allow them to tear Moscow away from Beijing. Let's not delve into how realistic this is. This illusion is already America's problem. How far we can be 'pressed' to give up our interests depends solely on our capabilities. And this is exactly what Budanov is talking about: 'To dictate terms, you only need to be strong,'" the political scientist emphasized.

He also noted that Ukraine's strength is not an abstract concept, citing information from Budanov: strikes on enemy fuel and energy complex facilities have already disabled about 21% of Russian oil refining. According to him, this is a direct economic argument that reduces the Kremlin's ability to finance the war.

And despite the loud statements of Russian rhetoric about 'victorious victory', the reality is quite different: the war is becoming increasingly expensive for Russia. This rising cost is gradually changing moods within Russia itself. According to Budanov, the number of those interested in ending the war is growing. In other words, all the ostentatious bravado may not be a manifestation of strength, but an attempt through bluff and demonstration of imaginary superiority to bargain for more. "And I will say frankly: we need such adult conversations—without self-deception and without expecting that someone will do our work for us. The illusion that everyone owes us and someone from the outside will ensure victory is dangerous. For each individual, as well as for the country as a whole," emphasized Mykhailo Schneider.

The expressed thoughts underline the importance of a realistic approach to Ukraine's foreign policy. In conditions of rising war costs and changing internal moods in Russia, it is important for the Ukrainian leadership to maintain independence in decision-making and clearly defend its interests. This is a real challenge, but only by understanding reality can we confront external and internal threats.