Ukraine’s Hryvnia Slide: Economist Novak Points to Real Cause, Says Central Bank Has the Reserves.

What’s Driving Ukraine’s Currency Market

According to TSN.ua: According to economist Andriy Novak, the recent depreciation of the hryvnia is not tied to the conflict in the Middle East. He argues that the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) holds sufficient reserves to stabilize the national currency. Specifically, the NBU’s gold and foreign currency reserves have reached a record high of $57 billion.

In recent days, the U.S. dollar hit an all-time high on March 13, with the average buying rate at banks standing at 43.98 UAH and the selling rate at 44.55 UAH. Looking ahead, the official forecast for 2026 projects the dollar exchange rate at 45 UAH.

'The National Bank of Ukraine exists as an institution precisely to curb excessive currency fluctuations.' Andriy Novak

Novak also pointed out that 'the self-interest of currency speculators trying to profit from the noise around the Middle East war is overriding national economic interests.' When asked about the outlook for the dollar, Novak posed the question: 'Will the dollar reach 45 UAH?'

The Central Bank’s Grip on the Market

All this suggests that Ukraine’s currency market remains under the NBU’s control, despite external factors that could otherwise threaten economic stability.

The situation on Ukraine’s foreign exchange market shows that external events—such as the war in the Middle East—are not the main driver of the hryvnia’s movements. The central bank has enough reserves to counter currency volatility, signaling its readiness to keep the market steady. While forecasts for the dollar in the coming years point to possible shifts, experts are confident the NBU can handle these challenges.